FEMA
05-24-2010, 10:22 AM
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)
Significant National Weather
Midwest
Severe thunderstorms may develop today across the Plains, from Kansas to the Dakotas and possibly eastward into parts of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan as a strong storm system moves northward through the region. Heavy rain, damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are possible in these areas.Â* A slight chance of thunderstorms is also possible across the Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.Â* Flash Flood Watches have been issued through tonight in portions of South Dakota and Montana.Â* Flash Flood Warnings have been issued through early morning in portions of Minnesota.
South
Showers and thunderstorms are possible from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas, Georgia and parts of Florida.Â* Rain accumulations of up to one inch are possible in some areas.Â* Thunderstorms (some severe) are possible across the western counties of Texas and Oklahoma.Â* Red Flags Warnings are in effect through this afternoon for portions of the interior Florida Panhandle as well as western Gadsden and northwest Liberty counties in the Florida Big Bend for strong winds and low humidity.
Northeast
Light showers will linger from the southern coast of New England to Virginia; rain accumulations will be less than a tenth of an inch in most areas.
WestÂ*
Showers and mountain snow are forecast across portions of Utah and Colorado. A few severe thunderstorms are possible in easternmost Colorado.Â* Showers and mountain snow will fall across Idaho, with the heaviest rain and mountain snow expected over much of Montana and Wyoming.Â* Portions of eastern Montana may receive between 1 and 3 inches of rain by Tuesday.Â* Red Flags Warnings are in effect through this afternoon for portions of southeastern Colorado and northern and central New Mexico due to strong winds and low humidity.Â*(NOAAâs National Weather Service, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and media sources)Â*
Mississippi Canyon 252 Update
FEMA Actions
FEMA is supporting the operation by providing personnel to the National Integration Center as well as Logistics and External Affairs support for the Federal On-Scene Coordinator.
Situational Update
243,859 barrels (10,242,078 gallons) of oily water mixture has been recovered and 788,663 gallons (686,904 gallons surface/101,759 gallons subsea) of dispersants have been deployed to date. The Riser Insertion Tube Tool (RITT) remains inserted; recovery of oil/gas mixture continues; an average of 2,143 barrels (90,000 gallons) of oil is recovered daily. Drill Rig DDIII drilling operations continue with a depth at 10,100 feet below the sea floor. Drill Rig DDII current drill depth is 6,750 ft below the sea floor; casing has been set and cemented.
Hurricane Prep Week
(May 23-29):
Mondayâs focus â Storm Surge
âThe greatest potential for loss of life related to a hurricane is from the storm surge.â
Storm surge is water pushed toward the shore by the force of winds swirling around a hurricane or tropical storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level by 15 feet or more. This rise in water level can cause severe flooding in coastal areas, particularly when the storm tide coincides with normal high tides. Because much of the United States' densely populated Atlantic and Gulf Coast coastlines lie less than 10 feet above mean sea level, the danger from storm tides is tremendous.
One tool used to evaluate the threat from storm surge is the SLOSH model. SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) is a computerized model run by the National Hurricane Center to estimate storm surge heights and winds resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes by taking into account pressure, size, forward speed, track and winds. Emergency managers use this data to determine which areas must be evacuated.
Storm surge affects rivers and inland lakes which can potentially increase the evacuation area. In general, the more intense the storm, and the closer a community is to the right-front quadrant of the storm, the larger the area that must be evacuated. The problem is the uncertainty about how intense the storm will be when it makes landfall. Emergency managers and local officials balance that uncertainty with the human and economic risks to their community. A rule of thumb for some emergency managers is to plan for a storm one category higher than what is forecast. This is a reasonable precaution to help minimize the potential loss of life from hurricane damage.
Wave and current action associated with the tide during storm surge can also cause extensive damage. Water weighs approximately 1,700 pounds per cubic yard and the extended pounding by frequent waves can demolish structures not designed to withstand such intense force. In addition, the currents created by the tides combine with the wave action to severely erode beaches and coastal highways. Some buildings that withstand hurricane force winds may have foundations undermined by erosion enough to eventually fail. (Excerpts are from: www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/storm_surge.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/storm_surge.shtml), www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/slosh.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/slosh.shtml)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No activity.Â* (FEMA HQ)Â*
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system centered about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean along with gale-force winds. This low is expected to move slowly toward the north-northwest and has some potential to gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next couple of days.Â*
There is a medium chance, 30 percent, of this system becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.Â*Â*
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours
Western Pacific:Â*
No activity.
(NOAA, CPHC JTWC)
Earthquake Activity
Strong aftershocks continue along US/Mexico border near Mexicali. Over 100 quakes ranging in magnitude from 1.0 â 4.9 have been recorded in the past 48 hours. No reports of major damage or injuries. A Tsunami Advisory was issued and there is no tsunami threat.
(USGS)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level 1
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, May 23, 2010:Â*
Initial attack activity: Light, (56 new fires), New large fires: 0, Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires: 2, States affected: NM, MI and AK
(NIFC)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
More... (http://www.fema.gov/emergency/reports/2010/nat052410.shtm)
Significant National Weather
Midwest
Severe thunderstorms may develop today across the Plains, from Kansas to the Dakotas and possibly eastward into parts of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan as a strong storm system moves northward through the region. Heavy rain, damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are possible in these areas.Â* A slight chance of thunderstorms is also possible across the Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.Â* Flash Flood Watches have been issued through tonight in portions of South Dakota and Montana.Â* Flash Flood Warnings have been issued through early morning in portions of Minnesota.
South
Showers and thunderstorms are possible from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas, Georgia and parts of Florida.Â* Rain accumulations of up to one inch are possible in some areas.Â* Thunderstorms (some severe) are possible across the western counties of Texas and Oklahoma.Â* Red Flags Warnings are in effect through this afternoon for portions of the interior Florida Panhandle as well as western Gadsden and northwest Liberty counties in the Florida Big Bend for strong winds and low humidity.
Northeast
Light showers will linger from the southern coast of New England to Virginia; rain accumulations will be less than a tenth of an inch in most areas.
WestÂ*
Showers and mountain snow are forecast across portions of Utah and Colorado. A few severe thunderstorms are possible in easternmost Colorado.Â* Showers and mountain snow will fall across Idaho, with the heaviest rain and mountain snow expected over much of Montana and Wyoming.Â* Portions of eastern Montana may receive between 1 and 3 inches of rain by Tuesday.Â* Red Flags Warnings are in effect through this afternoon for portions of southeastern Colorado and northern and central New Mexico due to strong winds and low humidity.Â*(NOAAâs National Weather Service, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and media sources)Â*
Mississippi Canyon 252 Update
FEMA Actions
FEMA is supporting the operation by providing personnel to the National Integration Center as well as Logistics and External Affairs support for the Federal On-Scene Coordinator.
Situational Update
243,859 barrels (10,242,078 gallons) of oily water mixture has been recovered and 788,663 gallons (686,904 gallons surface/101,759 gallons subsea) of dispersants have been deployed to date. The Riser Insertion Tube Tool (RITT) remains inserted; recovery of oil/gas mixture continues; an average of 2,143 barrels (90,000 gallons) of oil is recovered daily. Drill Rig DDIII drilling operations continue with a depth at 10,100 feet below the sea floor. Drill Rig DDII current drill depth is 6,750 ft below the sea floor; casing has been set and cemented.
Hurricane Prep Week
(May 23-29):
Mondayâs focus â Storm Surge
âThe greatest potential for loss of life related to a hurricane is from the storm surge.â
Storm surge is water pushed toward the shore by the force of winds swirling around a hurricane or tropical storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level by 15 feet or more. This rise in water level can cause severe flooding in coastal areas, particularly when the storm tide coincides with normal high tides. Because much of the United States' densely populated Atlantic and Gulf Coast coastlines lie less than 10 feet above mean sea level, the danger from storm tides is tremendous.
One tool used to evaluate the threat from storm surge is the SLOSH model. SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) is a computerized model run by the National Hurricane Center to estimate storm surge heights and winds resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes by taking into account pressure, size, forward speed, track and winds. Emergency managers use this data to determine which areas must be evacuated.
Storm surge affects rivers and inland lakes which can potentially increase the evacuation area. In general, the more intense the storm, and the closer a community is to the right-front quadrant of the storm, the larger the area that must be evacuated. The problem is the uncertainty about how intense the storm will be when it makes landfall. Emergency managers and local officials balance that uncertainty with the human and economic risks to their community. A rule of thumb for some emergency managers is to plan for a storm one category higher than what is forecast. This is a reasonable precaution to help minimize the potential loss of life from hurricane damage.
Wave and current action associated with the tide during storm surge can also cause extensive damage. Water weighs approximately 1,700 pounds per cubic yard and the extended pounding by frequent waves can demolish structures not designed to withstand such intense force. In addition, the currents created by the tides combine with the wave action to severely erode beaches and coastal highways. Some buildings that withstand hurricane force winds may have foundations undermined by erosion enough to eventually fail. (Excerpts are from: www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/storm_surge.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/storm_surge.shtml), www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/slosh.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/slosh.shtml)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No activity.Â* (FEMA HQ)Â*
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system centered about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean along with gale-force winds. This low is expected to move slowly toward the north-northwest and has some potential to gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next couple of days.Â*
There is a medium chance, 30 percent, of this system becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.Â*Â*
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours
Western Pacific:Â*
No activity.
(NOAA, CPHC JTWC)
Earthquake Activity
Strong aftershocks continue along US/Mexico border near Mexicali. Over 100 quakes ranging in magnitude from 1.0 â 4.9 have been recorded in the past 48 hours. No reports of major damage or injuries. A Tsunami Advisory was issued and there is no tsunami threat.
(USGS)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level 1
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, May 23, 2010:Â*
Initial attack activity: Light, (56 new fires), New large fires: 0, Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires: 2, States affected: NM, MI and AK
(NIFC)
Disaster Declaration Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
More... (http://www.fema.gov/emergency/reports/2010/nat052410.shtm)