FEMA
09-08-2010, 09:05 AM
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)
Significant National Weather
West
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across parts of Washington, Oregon and northern California but severe weather is not expected. Gusty winds will occur over portions of interior Southern California, Nevada, western Utah and northern Arizona where dry winds could gust over 40 mph and could bring an increased fire danger.
MidwestÂ*
A storm system over the Great Lakes will move eastward by Thursday and may deliver showers and thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Heavy rain and flooding is possible across the southern portions of Kansas and heavy rainfall and thunderstorms may occur in Missouri and Nebraska.
Northeast
Gusty winds are forecast across New York, Pennsylvania and southern New England as cooler air moves southward from the Great Lakes. Wind gusts over the Appalachians could exceed 40 miles per hour. A few showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the Northeast, especially Upstate New York and New England, with isolated storms possible from New York City south to Virginia.
SouthÂ*
Widespread heavy rain and the threat of flooding continue from Texas to Arkansas and Oklahoma. Flash Flood Watches were issued from Texas to Kansas, where 1 to 3 inches of rain an hour is possible. Light to moderate rain and thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southern Plains, and will move into parts of the lower Missouri Valley by Thursday. Pleasant weather is forecast from Mississippi to the Carolinas, but a few storms are possible Wednesday afternoon across Tennessee and North Carolina.
(NOAA and media sources)
Former Tropical Storm Hermine
The remnants of Hermine are now a training pattern of showers and thunderstorms producing extensive rainfall amounts throughout central Texas. A narrow band of heavy rainfall developed west of Austin along and west of I-35 and that produced 6 to 10 inches of rain. The deep tropical moisture associated with Hermine will continue to support heavy flooding rains northward into Oklahoma today and into southeast Kansas and Missouri by Friday morning. All of these regions are currently under flood or flash flood watches.
FEMA Region VI
Region VI RRCC remains at Watch/Steady State. The Regional IMAT and PDA teams are on standby and ready to support flood response operations as requested. There are no requests for FEMA assistance at this time.
Study Finds El Niño Growing Stronger
According to a new study by NASA and NOAA, a relatively new type of El Niño is becoming more common and progressively stronger.
Scientists from NASAâs Jet Propulsion Laboratory and NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory measured changes in El Niño intensity since 1982. They found the intensity of El Niños in the central Pacific has nearly doubled over the study period, with the most intense event occurring in 2009-10.
This new El Niño has its warmest waters in the central-equatorial Pacific Ocean rather than in the eastern-equatorial Pacific. The scientists say the stronger El Niños help explain a steady rise in central Pacific sea surface temperatures observed over the past few decades. These results suggest climate change may already be affecting El Niño by shifting the center of action from the eastern to the Central Pacific.
Further research is needed to evaluate the impacts of these increasingly intense El Niños and determine why these changes are occurring. It is important to know if the increasing intensity and frequency of these central Pacific El Niños are due to natural variations in climate or to climate change caused by human-produced greenhouse gas emissions. For further information, see the report at www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100823_elnino.html (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100823_elnino.html)Â*
(NOAA)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of MexicoÂ*
Showers and thunderstorm activity is becoming more organized near an area of low pressure located just south of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. There is a high chance, near 70 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
A weak area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is associated with a trough located about 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Development, if any, will be slow to occur with the trough as it heads slowly to the west-southwest over the next couple of days. There is a low chance, near 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Another trough is about 550 miles south-southeast of Hilo, and is expected to move to the west at about 10 mph over the next two days. There is also a low chance, near 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Eastern and Western Pacific
No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next 48 hours.
(NOAA, JTWC)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, September 7, 2010:Â*
Initial attack activity was light with 96 new fires including four new large fires but one large fire contained. There are ten uncontained large fires under full suppression strategy affecting Colorado, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Idaho, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah, Pennsylvania and Wyoming.Â*(NIFC)Â*
Fourmile Canyon Fire (Boulder County, CO)Â*
The Fourmile Canyon Fire that began September 6 with more than 6,000 acres consumed. A FEMA FMAG was approved for the fire on September 6 and the Governor of Colorado declared a State of Emergency for the fire area on Sept 7.Â*
There are no reported injuries or fatalities. Mandatory evacuations remain in effect and are affecting 3,500 residents. There are reports of more than 50 residences destroyed and an additional 500 homes are threatened.
To fight the fire, the Boulder, CO Type III Incident Management Team (IMT) integrated with a Type II IMT. Due to the complexity of the incident, the teams on the ground requested a Type I IMT which will begin operations today.
(HQ FEMA)
Disaster Declaration Activity
Amendment 1 to FEMA-1933-DR-WI was approved September 7 making one additional county eligible to for the Public Assistance program for severe storms, tornadoes and flooding that occurred on August 11, 2010. (HQ FEMA)
More... (http://www.fema.gov/emergency/reports/2010/nat090810.shtm)
Significant National Weather
West
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across parts of Washington, Oregon and northern California but severe weather is not expected. Gusty winds will occur over portions of interior Southern California, Nevada, western Utah and northern Arizona where dry winds could gust over 40 mph and could bring an increased fire danger.
MidwestÂ*
A storm system over the Great Lakes will move eastward by Thursday and may deliver showers and thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Heavy rain and flooding is possible across the southern portions of Kansas and heavy rainfall and thunderstorms may occur in Missouri and Nebraska.
Northeast
Gusty winds are forecast across New York, Pennsylvania and southern New England as cooler air moves southward from the Great Lakes. Wind gusts over the Appalachians could exceed 40 miles per hour. A few showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the Northeast, especially Upstate New York and New England, with isolated storms possible from New York City south to Virginia.
SouthÂ*
Widespread heavy rain and the threat of flooding continue from Texas to Arkansas and Oklahoma. Flash Flood Watches were issued from Texas to Kansas, where 1 to 3 inches of rain an hour is possible. Light to moderate rain and thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southern Plains, and will move into parts of the lower Missouri Valley by Thursday. Pleasant weather is forecast from Mississippi to the Carolinas, but a few storms are possible Wednesday afternoon across Tennessee and North Carolina.
(NOAA and media sources)
Former Tropical Storm Hermine
The remnants of Hermine are now a training pattern of showers and thunderstorms producing extensive rainfall amounts throughout central Texas. A narrow band of heavy rainfall developed west of Austin along and west of I-35 and that produced 6 to 10 inches of rain. The deep tropical moisture associated with Hermine will continue to support heavy flooding rains northward into Oklahoma today and into southeast Kansas and Missouri by Friday morning. All of these regions are currently under flood or flash flood watches.
FEMA Region VI
Region VI RRCC remains at Watch/Steady State. The Regional IMAT and PDA teams are on standby and ready to support flood response operations as requested. There are no requests for FEMA assistance at this time.
Study Finds El Niño Growing Stronger
According to a new study by NASA and NOAA, a relatively new type of El Niño is becoming more common and progressively stronger.
Scientists from NASAâs Jet Propulsion Laboratory and NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory measured changes in El Niño intensity since 1982. They found the intensity of El Niños in the central Pacific has nearly doubled over the study period, with the most intense event occurring in 2009-10.
This new El Niño has its warmest waters in the central-equatorial Pacific Ocean rather than in the eastern-equatorial Pacific. The scientists say the stronger El Niños help explain a steady rise in central Pacific sea surface temperatures observed over the past few decades. These results suggest climate change may already be affecting El Niño by shifting the center of action from the eastern to the Central Pacific.
Further research is needed to evaluate the impacts of these increasingly intense El Niños and determine why these changes are occurring. It is important to know if the increasing intensity and frequency of these central Pacific El Niños are due to natural variations in climate or to climate change caused by human-produced greenhouse gas emissions. For further information, see the report at www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100823_elnino.html (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100823_elnino.html)Â*
(NOAA)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of MexicoÂ*
Showers and thunderstorm activity is becoming more organized near an area of low pressure located just south of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. There is a high chance, near 70 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
A weak area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is associated with a trough located about 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Development, if any, will be slow to occur with the trough as it heads slowly to the west-southwest over the next couple of days. There is a low chance, near 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Another trough is about 550 miles south-southeast of Hilo, and is expected to move to the west at about 10 mph over the next two days. There is also a low chance, near 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Eastern and Western Pacific
No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next 48 hours.
(NOAA, JTWC)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, September 7, 2010:Â*
Initial attack activity was light with 96 new fires including four new large fires but one large fire contained. There are ten uncontained large fires under full suppression strategy affecting Colorado, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Idaho, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah, Pennsylvania and Wyoming.Â*(NIFC)Â*
Fourmile Canyon Fire (Boulder County, CO)Â*
The Fourmile Canyon Fire that began September 6 with more than 6,000 acres consumed. A FEMA FMAG was approved for the fire on September 6 and the Governor of Colorado declared a State of Emergency for the fire area on Sept 7.Â*
There are no reported injuries or fatalities. Mandatory evacuations remain in effect and are affecting 3,500 residents. There are reports of more than 50 residences destroyed and an additional 500 homes are threatened.
To fight the fire, the Boulder, CO Type III Incident Management Team (IMT) integrated with a Type II IMT. Due to the complexity of the incident, the teams on the ground requested a Type I IMT which will begin operations today.
(HQ FEMA)
Disaster Declaration Activity
Amendment 1 to FEMA-1933-DR-WI was approved September 7 making one additional county eligible to for the Public Assistance program for severe storms, tornadoes and flooding that occurred on August 11, 2010. (HQ FEMA)
More... (http://www.fema.gov/emergency/reports/2010/nat090810.shtm)