FEMA
10-14-2010, 12:47 PM
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)
Significant National Weather
Northeast
An early season Norâeaster will impact the northern Mid-Atlantic coast to the Northeast beginning today, then rapidly intensify and move northward near eastern Massachusetts on Friday. Expect ongoing rain and embedded thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity today along the East Coast from Virginia into New York. Winds will pick up overnight and allow Atlantic moisture to be transported into New England. Widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals are expected along with the possibility of some wet snow into northern New England as colder air descends into the area.
South
Across southern Florida an area of deep tropical moisture extending northeastward from Hurricane Paula and will continue to produce an environment favorable for periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms today, primarily over the Florida Keys. High pressure will build into the Mid South, bringing cooler and much drier air to the region on Friday.
Midwest
A cold front will continue to bring rain from southeastern Missouri to northern Michigan. Light rain will be possible today and Friday along the Great Lakes. A low-pressure system dropping southward from the Upper Mississippi Valley will strengthen as it approaches the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Region today.
West
A cold front will come ashore today through the Pacific Northwest which will usher in some light upslope enhanced rain for western Washington and Oregon, eventually reaching the Northern Rockies overnight. Much cooler temps will be seen behind the cold front from the Northwest into the North Central U.S. while much of the High Plains region sees highs well into the 80s with plenty of sunshine. (NOAAâs National Weather Service, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and media sources)
East Coast braces for Early Season Norâeaster
A strong early season storm system will move up the eastern seaboard this afternoon and evening. An area of low pressure will develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast today, which will strengthen as it tracks northeast around Cape Cod by Friday morning, and then meanders around eastern New England through Friday night. Rain, possibly heavy at times, is expected late today through tonight. One to two inches of rain could fall, which could result in widespread urban and small stream flooding. After the passage of the storm, gusty west to northwest winds will develop on Friday with 25 to 45 mph wind gusts likely Friday afternoon and evening. With moist soil from the rainfall and with plenty of leaves still on trees, the potential will exist for downed trees Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Red Cross Warns Next Urban Disaster Could be Worse than Haiti Quake
To mark the International Day for Disaster Reduction, the American Red Cross released the 2010 World Disasters Report with a warning that the next urban disaster could be even worse than the January earthquake in Haiti, which killed an estimated 230,000 people. Today, more than 2.5 billion urban residents, the world's total population in 1950, are vulnerable to unacceptable levels of risk. This is fueled by rapid urbanization, poor local governance, population growth, poor health services and, in many instances, a rising tide of urban violence.
"For the first time in history more people are living in towns and cities than in rural areas, and in just 20 years, over 60 percent of the world's population will be living in urban centers." as reported by David Meltzer, senior vice president of international services for the American Red Cross. "This will lead to more people being affected by urban disasters like the devastating earthquake that struck near Haiti's capital earlier this year."
According to the report, in any given year, over 50,000 people can die as a result of earthquakes and 100 million can be affected by floods. The worst affected are most often vulnerable city dwellers.
To read the American Red Cross 2010 World Disasters Report, go to http://www.ifrc.org/Docs/pubs/disasters/wdr2010/WDR2010-full.pdfÂ*
About the American Red Cross: The American Red Cross shelters, feeds and provides emotional support to victims of disasters; supplies nearly half of the nation's blood; teaches lifesaving skills; provides international humanitarian aid; and supports military members and their families. The Red Cross is a charitable organization â not a government agency â and depends on volunteers to perform its mission. For more information, please visit www.redcross.org (http://www.redcross.org/).
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Paula (Category 1)
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Paula was located about 30 miles north of the western tip of Cuba, moving toward the northeast near 5 mph. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected later today. On the forecast track, Paula will be passing very near or over western Cuba today. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Paula is a Category One hurricane. Weakening is expected during the next day or two as the center of Paula moves over Cuba and encounters unfavorable upper level winds. Paula is forecast to become a Tropical Storm later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles. Winds could begin to increase over the lower and middle Florida Keys late today. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Eastern PacificÂ*
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1,400 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California are associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Development in this area is expected to be slow to occur and there is a LOW chance (10 %) of the system becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
Central Pacific
No Tropical cyclones are expected through Friday evening.
Western Pacific
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Fifteen W (Megi) was located 390 miles west of Guam. The storm is moving northwest at 9 mph, and is not projected to affect U.S. interests. (NOAA, NWS, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
At 10:06 a.m. EDT October 13, a magnitude 4.3 earthquake occurred approximately 10 miles east of Norman, OK and 20 miles southeast of Oklahoma City at a depth of 4.9 miles. Two people received minor injuries at Norman, OK. The quake was felt throughout central Oklahoma and in parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri and Texas. Only minor damage was reported. Â*(USGS)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, October 13, 2010:
Initial attack activity: Light (57 new fires)
New large fires: 2
Large fires contained: 2
Uncontained large fires: 1
States Affected: Arkansas and Mississippi. (NIFC)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No activity.(HQ FEMA)Â*
Disaster Declaration Activity
Minnesota
The President has signed Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1941-DR for the State of Minnesota due to Severe Storms and Flooding that occurred September 22, 2010 and continuing. Specifically, the declaration provides Public Assistance for 21 counties. Direct Federal assistance is authorized. All counties in the State of Minnesota are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. The FCO is Lawrence Summer of the National FCO Program.Â*(FEMA HQ)
More... (http://www.fema.gov/emergency/reports/2010/nat101410.shtm)
Significant National Weather
Northeast
An early season Norâeaster will impact the northern Mid-Atlantic coast to the Northeast beginning today, then rapidly intensify and move northward near eastern Massachusetts on Friday. Expect ongoing rain and embedded thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity today along the East Coast from Virginia into New York. Winds will pick up overnight and allow Atlantic moisture to be transported into New England. Widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals are expected along with the possibility of some wet snow into northern New England as colder air descends into the area.
South
Across southern Florida an area of deep tropical moisture extending northeastward from Hurricane Paula and will continue to produce an environment favorable for periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms today, primarily over the Florida Keys. High pressure will build into the Mid South, bringing cooler and much drier air to the region on Friday.
Midwest
A cold front will continue to bring rain from southeastern Missouri to northern Michigan. Light rain will be possible today and Friday along the Great Lakes. A low-pressure system dropping southward from the Upper Mississippi Valley will strengthen as it approaches the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Region today.
West
A cold front will come ashore today through the Pacific Northwest which will usher in some light upslope enhanced rain for western Washington and Oregon, eventually reaching the Northern Rockies overnight. Much cooler temps will be seen behind the cold front from the Northwest into the North Central U.S. while much of the High Plains region sees highs well into the 80s with plenty of sunshine. (NOAAâs National Weather Service, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and media sources)
East Coast braces for Early Season Norâeaster
A strong early season storm system will move up the eastern seaboard this afternoon and evening. An area of low pressure will develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast today, which will strengthen as it tracks northeast around Cape Cod by Friday morning, and then meanders around eastern New England through Friday night. Rain, possibly heavy at times, is expected late today through tonight. One to two inches of rain could fall, which could result in widespread urban and small stream flooding. After the passage of the storm, gusty west to northwest winds will develop on Friday with 25 to 45 mph wind gusts likely Friday afternoon and evening. With moist soil from the rainfall and with plenty of leaves still on trees, the potential will exist for downed trees Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Red Cross Warns Next Urban Disaster Could be Worse than Haiti Quake
To mark the International Day for Disaster Reduction, the American Red Cross released the 2010 World Disasters Report with a warning that the next urban disaster could be even worse than the January earthquake in Haiti, which killed an estimated 230,000 people. Today, more than 2.5 billion urban residents, the world's total population in 1950, are vulnerable to unacceptable levels of risk. This is fueled by rapid urbanization, poor local governance, population growth, poor health services and, in many instances, a rising tide of urban violence.
"For the first time in history more people are living in towns and cities than in rural areas, and in just 20 years, over 60 percent of the world's population will be living in urban centers." as reported by David Meltzer, senior vice president of international services for the American Red Cross. "This will lead to more people being affected by urban disasters like the devastating earthquake that struck near Haiti's capital earlier this year."
According to the report, in any given year, over 50,000 people can die as a result of earthquakes and 100 million can be affected by floods. The worst affected are most often vulnerable city dwellers.
To read the American Red Cross 2010 World Disasters Report, go to http://www.ifrc.org/Docs/pubs/disasters/wdr2010/WDR2010-full.pdfÂ*
About the American Red Cross: The American Red Cross shelters, feeds and provides emotional support to victims of disasters; supplies nearly half of the nation's blood; teaches lifesaving skills; provides international humanitarian aid; and supports military members and their families. The Red Cross is a charitable organization â not a government agency â and depends on volunteers to perform its mission. For more information, please visit www.redcross.org (http://www.redcross.org/).
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Paula (Category 1)
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Paula was located about 30 miles north of the western tip of Cuba, moving toward the northeast near 5 mph. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected later today. On the forecast track, Paula will be passing very near or over western Cuba today. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Paula is a Category One hurricane. Weakening is expected during the next day or two as the center of Paula moves over Cuba and encounters unfavorable upper level winds. Paula is forecast to become a Tropical Storm later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles. Winds could begin to increase over the lower and middle Florida Keys late today. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Eastern PacificÂ*
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1,400 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California are associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Development in this area is expected to be slow to occur and there is a LOW chance (10 %) of the system becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
Central Pacific
No Tropical cyclones are expected through Friday evening.
Western Pacific
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Fifteen W (Megi) was located 390 miles west of Guam. The storm is moving northwest at 9 mph, and is not projected to affect U.S. interests. (NOAA, NWS, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
At 10:06 a.m. EDT October 13, a magnitude 4.3 earthquake occurred approximately 10 miles east of Norman, OK and 20 miles southeast of Oklahoma City at a depth of 4.9 miles. Two people received minor injuries at Norman, OK. The quake was felt throughout central Oklahoma and in parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri and Texas. Only minor damage was reported. Â*(USGS)
Wildfire Update
National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, October 13, 2010:
Initial attack activity: Light (57 new fires)
New large fires: 2
Large fires contained: 2
Uncontained large fires: 1
States Affected: Arkansas and Mississippi. (NIFC)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No activity.(HQ FEMA)Â*
Disaster Declaration Activity
Minnesota
The President has signed Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1941-DR for the State of Minnesota due to Severe Storms and Flooding that occurred September 22, 2010 and continuing. Specifically, the declaration provides Public Assistance for 21 counties. Direct Federal assistance is authorized. All counties in the State of Minnesota are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. The FCO is Lawrence Summer of the National FCO Program.Â*(FEMA HQ)
More... (http://www.fema.gov/emergency/reports/2010/nat101410.shtm)