Public Document Distributors - Friday, August 12, 2011

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Missouri River Basin Flooding

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) continues to support the flooding response along the Missouri River Basin. There have been no new levee breaches or overtoppings reported since July 11, 2011.
While floodwaters continue to recede, they remain high and continue to stress flood control systems; however, the dams are fully functional and operating as designedâthe system is protecting the public from unregulated flows. In order to prepare for the 2012 runoff season, USACE developed a comprehensive drawdown plan for the Missouri River Basin system and will gradually step-down flow rates at all projects through September. The last Missouri River water gauge is expected to fall below Flood Stage and water levels are forecast to normalize in October. North Dakota has 2 shelters open with 156 occupants and Iowa has 1 shelter open with 4 occupants.

Significant National Weather

South
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Locally heavy rain, strong winds and small hail are possible in Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Heat Advisories remain in effect in northeastern Texas, portions of Oklahoma, Louisiana and Florida, where temperatures will range from the upper 90s to over 100 degrees.
Midwest
A strong system moving across the Northern and Central Plains will produce heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms today before moving eastward on Saturday. Damaging winds and large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible this afternoon and evening.

Northeast
Most of the region may remain dry today under high pressure. High temperatures will be in the 70s and low 80s from Upstate NY to New England and in the 80s across the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic.
West
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening across eastern Arizona and southern New Mexico. The storm system will produce strong winds and frequent lightning in these areas. Temperatures will be in the high 60s to 70s along the coast, and 95-110 degrees across the desert southwest.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean /Gulf of Mexico
Area 1
A broad area of low pressure centered about 1,000 miles west of the southern Cape Verde Islands is moving westward at near 15 mph. The associated shower activity remains disorganized and satellite imagery suggests the system may currently be encountering a drier and more stable air mass. However, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development during the next several days. This system has a Medium (30%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Area 2
A low pressure system located about 275 miles south-southwest of the southern Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development over the next

several days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. This system has a Medium (40%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Area 3
Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure about 250 miles west-northwest of Bermuda has become a little better organized during the past several hours. Additional slow development is possible during the next day or so before this disturbance merges with a frontal system. This system has a Low (20%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves northeastward at 15 to 20 mph.
Area 4
An area of disturbed weather has formed in association with a broad low pressure area about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Slow development is possible during the next couple of days as the low moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph. This system has a Low (10%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of El Salvador are currently poorly organized and any development is expected to be slow to occur. This system has a low (10%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly westward.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday evening.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Thursday, August 11, 2011:

National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Light (122 new fires)
New Large Fires: 7
Large Fires Contained: 13
Uncontained Large Fires: 16
Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
Type 2 IMT Committed: 1
States affected: VA, AR, OK, TX, ID, NM, OR, WA and CA.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

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