Thursday, August 11, 2011
 

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Missouri River Basin Flooding

Significant National Weather

South
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across a large portion of the Plains and across Arkansas into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Storms may produce locally heavy rain, strong wind gusts and some hail. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible across the Florida Peninsula. High temperatures east of the Mississippi River will reach the mid 80s to mid 90s and temperatures west of the Mississippi River will range from 95 to 110 degrrees.
Midwest
Thunderstorms are forecast across the Central and Northern Plains today, with a few storms featuring locally heavy rain. Some storms may produce strong wind gusts and hail.
Northeast
Some lingering showers are possible over the northernmost sections of New England, but dry pleasant conditions are forecast across the rest of the region. High temperatures will reach the 70s across much of Upstate New York and New England, and the 80s across the Mid-Atlantic.
West
Afternoon thunderstorms are forecast today over eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming, with a few storms producing heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds. Some localized flooding is also possible. Monsoonal thunderstorms will continue across parts of New Mexico and eastern Arizona. High temperatures across the desert Southwest are expected to range from 95 to 110 degrees.
Tropical Weather Outlook

Area 1
A large area of disturbed weather is associated with a tropical wave and a broad area of low pressure centered about 550 miles west of the southern Cape Verde Islands. This system has changed little in organization during the past several hours. However, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development over the next several days. This system has a medium (30%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Area 2
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across the Florida Peninsula into the Atlantic for several hundred miles are associated with a broad trough of low pressure. Any development of this system will be slow to occur as it moves eastward and then northeastward at around 15 mph. This system has a low (10%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Area 3
The remnants of Emily are located about 630 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and are moving toward the northeast at about 10 mph. The associated shower activity continues to show some signs of organization. However, environmental conditions are not conducive for significant development as this system moves over cooler waters and begins to interact with a frontal zone. This system has a low (10%) chance of regenerating into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Area 4
An area of disturbed weather located about 450 miles southeast of the southern Cape Verde Islands is moving westward at about 15 mph. Slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days and it has a low (10%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

• National Preparedness Level: 2
• Initial attack activity: Moderate (280 new fires)
• New Large Fires: 6
• Large Fires Contained: 7
• Uncontained Large Fires: 28
• Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
• Type 2 IMT Committed: 0
• States affected: VA, FL, CO, AR, OK, TX, ID, UT, AZ, NM, OR, NV, WA and CA.

Disaster Declaration Activity



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