Tuesday, October 5, 2010

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

West
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Great Basin, Southern California, and the Four Corners today and Wednesday. Some showers are also possible across the Northern Rockies today. High temperatures across Central and Southern California will be about 10 degrees below average.
Midwest
An upper ridge centered over the Plain States will keep things dry today and Wednesday. High temperatures across the Northern Plains may be up to 20 degrees above average before a cold front brings temperatures back down on Wednesday.
South
A low-pressure system will persist across the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, before moving off to the Northeast on Thursday and Friday. A gradual warm-up is expected and conditions should remain dry into early next week.
Northeast
A pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic Coast may bring showers to the Appalachians, the lower Great Lakes, the northern Mid-Atlantic States and southern New England then spread into northern New England on Wednesday evening. High temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal across the Mid-Atlantic States today.
(NOAA and media sources)Â*
National Wildland Fire Outlook

On October 1, 2010, the National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services released their National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook for the month of October and their forecast outlook from November 2010 to January 2011.
La Niña continues to strengthen and is expected to continue through the winter. While La Niña typically produces a warm, dry fall and winter over most of the Southwest, the fire potential may increase in late October over eastern New Mexico and west Texas. In the Great Basin, Alaska, the Northern Rockies and the Southwest, the usual significant fire potential is forecast through January.
In the Northern Rockies, the main area of concern is the significant grass and fine fuel loading east of the Divide. With the onset of below freezing temperatures at night, these fuels will cure and become available to burn. The Great Basin is forecast to have its normal significant fire potential through January, but very warm weather at the end of September coupled with the seasonal loss of live fuel moisture has driven fire danger conditions to record levels across Nevada, Utah, Idaho and western Wyoming.
Across the Northwest and the Rocky Mountain Areas, a normal significant fire potential is forecast from November through January. However, above normal fire potential is expected in October over northeast Colorado, portions of Wyoming, western South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. These areas will likely be more prone to large, short duration, wind driven grass fires during the winter months.
In the South and East, the significant fire potential is forecast to be above normal over most the area through January. The main risk areas are from southeast Missouri to the Appalachians. Across the South, above normal fire potential will expand eastward across the Mid-Atlantic States from November to January, as drier weather develops across the region. Most of California and Hawaii can expect a normal significant fire potential through January with the exception of the coastal areas of Southern California, as well as the leeward side of the Hawaiian Islands.
(NIFC)Â*
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of MexicoÂ*
A low pressure are located just north of the Virgin Islands may become a tropical depression during the next day or so. There is a high chance, near 60 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next day or two over the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
Another area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located about 950 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Development of this disturbance is not expected due to strong upper-level winds and there is a low chance, near zero percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Central, Eastern, and Western PacificÂ*
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
(NOAA, JTWC)Â*
Earthquake Activity

No significant activity.Â*(USGS)Â*
Wildfire Update

National Wildfire Activity as of Monday, October 4, 2010:
National Preparedness Level: 2Â*
Initial attack activity: light (201 new fires), new large fires: 3, large fires contained: 2
Uncontained large fires: 5, U.S. States affected: UT, ID, CO, SD, LA & AR
(NIFC)
Colorado Wildfire
The Churchâs Park Fire is located on U.S. Forest Service land in Grand County about seven miles west of Fraser, CO. It began on Oct. 3, 2010, and is 30 percent contained with approximately 530 acres burned. No structures are immediately threatened and no evacuations are ordered. No request has been made for FEMA assistance.
(FEMA Region VIII)Â*
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)Â*
No activity.
(HQ FEMA)Â*
Disaster Declaration Activity

ArizonaÂ*
On October 4, 2010, the President signed major disaster declaration for Arizona (DR-1940) as a result of damage from severe storms and flooding that occurred July 20 to Aug. 7, 2010. The declaration makes Coconino County eligible for the Public Assistance Program and all counties eligible to apply for the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Sandy Coachman was named as the Federal Coordinating Officer for this disaster.
(HQ FEMA)Â*
Stay informed of FEMAâs activities online: videos and podcasts available atÂ*www.fema.gov/medialibraryÂ*Â*andÂ*www.youtube.com/femaÂ*; follow us on Twitter atÂ*www.twitter.com/femaÂ*Â*and on Facebook at www.facebook.com/femaÂ*


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