Friday, October 8, 2010

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

West:
A pair of very moist Pacific storm systems will move through the Pacific Northwest this weekend bringing heavy rain at times to the mountains and along the coast. Local rivers and streams will experience sharp rises later in the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning along the Continental Divide spreading eastward into the Plains by Friday evening. Light snow is possible in the higher elevations of the Central Rockies through the evening.
Midwest:
The region will remain dry through the weekend as an upper level low moves through the Plains. Very warm temperatures will move into the region with record high temperatures possible in some locations. Southwest winds of 10-15 mph combined with low relative humidity will increase the fire danger in portions of Michigan this afternoon.
South:
Dry conditions and moderating temperatures will be the rule through much of the weekend as high pressure dominates the Mid-South and Southeastern states. Afternoon highs will run some 3 to 5 degrees above normal Friday and 4 to 8 above normal Saturday. Critically dry fuels and low humidity will increase the risk of fire danger across the Deep South and Southeastern U.S. through the weekend.
Northeast:
Much of the Northeast will remain under the influence of a large high-pressure system that will bring fair skies along with slowly warming temperatures through the upcoming holiday weekend.
Scattered showers are possible in northern New England as a cold front quickly drops south from Canada during the day today and pushes offshore tonight with high pressure building in behind the front on Saturday.(NOAAâs National Weather Service, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and media sources)Â*
Above Average Temperatures and Rainfall September 2010

The contiguous United States experienced the 14th warmest September on record in 2010. The September temperatures were 1.7 degrees above the 1901-2001 average, with precipitation 0.21 inches above average for the same period. Many states in New England and the Desert Southwest saw temperatures among the top 10 warmest. An unusual heat wave affected Southern California in the last week of September setting a new record high with temperatures reaching 113 degrees.
Due to an active weather pattern across the northern tier of the country, many states in the Midwest and High Plains experienced above normal precipitation while several other states including Wyoming, Mississippi and Louisiana had some of the driest Septembers on record. For more information visit www.NOAA.govÂ*(NOAA.gov)

Global Earthquake Alerts to Include Economic Loss and Casualty Information

Estimated economic loss and casualty information will now be included in earthquake alerts sent out by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). These earthquake alerts are widely recognized and used by emergency responders, government and aid officials, and the public to understand the scope of the potential disaster and to develop the best response.
The USGS automated system, PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by estimating the shaking distribution, the number of people and settlements exposed to severe shaking, and the range of possible fatalities and economic losses. The estimated losses trigger the appropriate color-coded alert, which determines levels of response: no response needed (green); local or regional (yellow), national (orange) or international (red) (see example of the PAGER for recent Alaska earthquake above).
PAGER results are generally available within 30 minutes of a significant earthquake, shortly after scientists determine the location and magnitude of the event. PAGER also provides important supplementary information, including comments describing the dominant types of vulnerable buildings in the region, fatality reports from previous nearby earthquakes, and a summary of regionally specific information concerning the potential for secondary hazards, such as earthquake-induced landslides, tsunamis and liquefaction. PAGER results are available on the Earthquake Hazards Program website (http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2605). (USGS)
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico
Â*Tropical Storm OTTO
At 5:00 a.m. EDT Oct 8, the center of Tropical Storm Otto was located about 520 miles south of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are 70 mph, with higher gusts. Otto is moving east-northeast at 14 mph. This general motion and a large increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Otto is expected to become a hurricane later today and further strengthening is possible on Saturday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.
Trough of Low Pressure (Area 1)
At 2:00 a.m. EDT Oct 8, a broad trough of low pressure continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Western Caribbean Sea. Some slow development is possible as the system remains nearly stationary over the next few days. There is a LOW chance (20 %) of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Area of Low Pressure
At 2:00 a.m. EDT Oct 8, an area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small low-pressure area located about 1,050 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico remains minimal. Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur as it moves westward at about 15 mph. There is a LOW chance (10 %) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Central PacificÂ*
No tropical cyclone activity is expected through Saturday evening.
Western Pacific No tropical activity affecting U.S. interests. NOAA, NWS, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)Â*
Earthquake Activity

At 11:49 p.m. EDT October 7, a magnitude 6.4 earthquake occurred offshore of the Aleutian Islands, 60 miles east-southeast of Adak, Alaska at a depth of 12.8 miles. The earthquake was followed by several aftershocks ranging from M 6.1 to M 4.6; all of which occurred near the same location at a depth of 21.7 miles. NWS West Coast /Alaska Tsunami Warning Center reports tsunamis are not expected.(USGS)
Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, October 7, 2010:
Initial attack activity: Light (149 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 1
Uncontained large fires: 2
States Affected: ID, CO, WY & AR (NIFC)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No activity. (HQ FEMA)
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Stay informed of FEMA's activities online: videos and podcasts available atÂ*www.fema.gov/medialibrary andÂ*www.youtube.com/fema; follow us on Twitter atÂ*www.twitter.com/fema and on Facebook atÂ*www.facebook.com/femaÂ*


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