Wednesday, October 13, 2010

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

South
A low-pressure system will organize off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday evening, with moderate rain developing into the Northeast along with increasing wind as the low deepens. Across southern Florida, an area of deep tropical moisture will extend northeastward from Hurricane Paula producing thunderstorms and heavy rainfall through Thursday. Heavy rains are forecasted to impact southern Florida, with totals of up to 3 inches possible across the keys.
Midwest
An upper level trough dropping south from the Upper Mississippi Valley will reach the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday, re-energizing precipitation along a front currently over the Great Lakes and Midwest.
Northeast
High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather to southern New England through tonight. An early season Norâeaster will likely impact southern New England with rain and wind along the coast Thursday and Friday. Some lingering showers are possible Friday night and Saturday, before dry weather arrives by Sunday.
West
A high pressure will stay in control from the Interior West to the Plains, with clear to partly cloudy skies and increasing temperatures through the end of the week. Across the Pacific Northwest, a rapidly deepening area of low pressure should bring rain, along with cooler temperatures, to Washington and Oregon by Friday.Â*(NOAAâs National Weather Service, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and media sources)Â*
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Paula (Category 2)
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Paula was located about 100 miles southwest of the western tip of Cuba, moving toward the north at 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin by this afternoon. On the forecast track, the small core of Paula should reach Yucatan Channel by this afternoon and be near or over western Cuba by tonight or early Thursday.
An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter recently indicated that maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible this morning, but gradual weakening is expected to begin by this afternoon or tonight. Hurricane force winds extend outward up 15 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles.
Eastern PacificÂ*
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central PacificÂ*
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a surface trough that is located 325 miles south southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This trough is moving to the west at 15 mph. Upper level winds will remain unfavorable for organized development. There is a LOW chance, near 0%, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon.
Western Pacific
No tropical activity affecting U.S. interests.Â*Â*(NOAA, NWS, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)Â*
Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 2
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, October 12, 2010: Initial attack activity was Light (83 new fires) with two New large fires and two Large fires contained. There are two uncontained large fires. The states of Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Mississippi are affected.Â*Â*(NIFC)Â*
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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