Friday, May 20, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Mississippi Valley Flooding

The Mississippi River crest continues to move south. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continue to monitor the crest and continues flood fighting measures throughout the Mississippi River and Tributaries (MR&T) system. New Orleans is expected to remain at near the current level for the next two weeks. The River is forecast to fall below flood stage on May 27.

Louisiana
The EOC is at Level III (Partial Activation). Seventeen (+1) of 125 gates are currently open along the Morganza Floodway. Three hundred and thirty of 350 gates are open on the Bonnet Carre Spillway that empties the Mississippi River into Lake Pontchartrain and is anticipated to remain open for 2 to 4 weeks. There are 3,900 residents that may require sheltering. Twenty-two 22 shelters are on standby with the capacity to house over 8,200 occupants. Thirty-four parishes have declared a Parish State of Emergency.
In the Morgan City Region of Louisiana, the ports of Bayou Chene, Berwick and Morgan City are closed. The New Orleans Region, the Atchafalaya River and the Port Allen âMorgan City route are closed. The Port of Baton Rouge remains open with restrictions.
Mandatory evacuations are in place for Krotz Springs and Melville communities outside of the ring levee. Voluntary evacuations are in place for the remainder of the low lying areas in St. Landry Parish. Mandatory evacuations will be issued for St. Martin Parish beginning May 21, 2011.
Mississippi
Seven shelters are open with 49 occupants. Seven MCOVs are operational across the state. USACE will continue to monitor the entire MR&T system with a focus on monitoring backwater flooding levee conditions near Yazoo Basin in the vicinity of Vicksburg Port of Natchez. The requested commodities are en route to the staging area in Verona, Mississippi. All 24 ports of the lower Mississippi River region are now open with restrictions. The Vicksburg Airport is now open with restrictions and the Yazoo County airport remains closed.

Flooding- Alaska and Washington

Alaska
On May 9, 2011, the village of Crooked Creek was inundated with flood waters and ice flow breakup. Evacuations and sheltering are ongoing (peak 54 occupants). The Buckland River at Buckland Village on the Seward Peninsula has been elevated to a Flood Warning until Friday afternoon, due to several ice jams producing lowland flooding of riverfront roads. The Governor signed a state Disaster Declaration.
Washington
The Yakima River has crested and flood warnings in the Yakima Valley will end this morning. Four counties (including Yakima County) have issued emergency declarations.

Northeast Flooding

Vermont
A State of Emergency remains in effect. Record flooding is forecast to continue. Flood Warnings continue for Lake Champlain.
New York
State of Emergency was declared at 10:00 pm, EDT due to flash floodingÂ*in Little Valley located in Cattaraugus County.Â* Flood Warnings continue for Lake Champlain at Rouses Point, due to major flooding. States of Emergency remains in effect in various towns and villages in Clinton, Essex, Allegheny and Oneida counties due to major flooding from storms that occurred on April 26, 2011. One shelter is open with 38 occupants.

Significant National Weather

West:
An upper level low will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms across the Intermountain West and Northern and Central Rockies. Locally heavy rain (1 to 2 inches) is possible.Â* The highest peaks of the Rockies will get some snow.Â* The remainder of the region will be dry with seasonable temperatures.
Midwest:
The system moving out of the Rockies will produce widespread precipitation across the Plains gradually spreading eastward into the Mississippi Valley tonight.Â* The precipitation will include severe thunderstorms (isolated tornadoes, hail and gusty winds) along the front from the Nebraska southward into Central Texas.
South:
Record flooding continues along the Mississippi River. Much of the Southeast will be dry except for scattered thunderstorms in the Carolinas andÂ* afternoon thunderstorms in southern Florida.Â* The cold front extending from the system in the Midwest will produce showers and thunderstorms in north central Texas, Oklahoma and portions of Louisiana and Arkansas. These thunderstorms have the potential to become severe and produce hail, gusty winds and tornados.Â* Another day of critical fire weather conditions is expected across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico due to low relative humidity (5 to 10%) and westerly winds of around 20 mph.
Northeast:
An upper level low will produce showers and thunderstorms across the region until it moves offshore late tonight.Â* (National Weather Service, Hydrometeorological Prediction)

NOAA 2011 Hurricane Outlooks

Atlantic Basin
The Atlantic Basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAAâs Climate Prediction Center â a division of the National Weather Service.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges:

• 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
• 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
NOAAâs seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches. For each storm, NOAAâs National Hurricane Center forecasts how these weather patterns affect the storm track, intensity and landfall potential.
Eastern Pacific
A below normal hurricane season is predicted for the Eastern Pacific this year. Allowing for forecast uncertainties, forecasters estimate a 70 percent chance of:

• 9 to 15 named storms, which includes
• 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which
• 1 to 3 are expected to become major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with eight to nine becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, with peak activity from July through September.
Central Pacific
A below normal hurricane season is predicted for the Central Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of a below normal season, with 2-3 tropical cyclones affecting the Central Pacific. An average season has 4-5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes

Hurricane Preparedness Week

Next week, May 22-28, is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. To help prepare residents of hurricane-prone areas, NOAA is unveiling a new set of video and audio public service announcements featuring NOAA hurricane experts and the FEMA administrator that are available in both English and Spanish. These are available at www.hurricanes.gov/prepare. (NOAA)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean:
Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins June 1.
Eastern / Central Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western / South Pacific:Â*
Tropical Depression 04W has formed in the Western Pacific southwest of Guam. Based on the current forecast the system poses no threat to Guam but will pass over the island of Yap in a little more than 36 hours as a Tropical Storm.Â*

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Thursday, May 19, 2011:

• National Preparedness Level: 2
• Initial attack activity: LIGHT (141 new fires)
• New Large Fires: 3
• Large Fires Contained: 2
• Uncontained Large Fires: 0
• Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
• Type 2 IMT Committed: 1
• States affected: NC, GA, TX, FL, LA, AZ, NM, & CA,(NIFC)

Horseshoe Two Fire, AZ (Cochise County)

• FMAG -2907 was approved May 9, 2011.
• 50 miles northeast of Bisbee, Arizona.
• 34,451 acres burned / 25 % contained with an estimated containment date of June 22
• 228 structures threatened.

Disaster Declaration Activity

Kentucky
Amendment No. 5 to FEMA-1976-DR-KY adds 4 counties for Individual Assistance, adds an additional 3 counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance, including direct Federal Assistance), and adds an additional 4 counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for emergency protective measures [Category B], limited to direct Federal Assistance).Â*Â*Â*Â* (FEMA HQ)



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