Friday, June 24, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Souris River Flooding â Minot, ND

Current Situation
Increased releases from Canadian reservoirs flowing into Lake Darling are causing severe flooding in Minot (Ward County). Canadian reservoirs were unable to reduce their releases by 5,000 cfs on June 22 as planned, bringing more water to Lake Darling and possibly creating a higher crest at Minot. Lake Darling releases were increased to 18,000 cfs yesterday and will increase to 26,000 cfs this morning and 28,000 cfs later today.Â* The releases will increase to a maximum 28,500 cfs by June 27 (an increase of 8,200 cfs from yesterdayâs estimate) and will stay at this flow rate for several days.
Water is flowing from Canada to Minot faster than ever recorded due to record water levels upstream causing shorter than normal travel time to Minot. Normal travel time for water from Canada to reach Minot is 8 days; with the increased flows, it will take only 3-4 days to reach Minot. Intensive modeling and analysis is underway to determine if the crest may arrive earlier. The current forecast is for the crest to reach between 1,564 and 1,565 feet beginning June 25 and to continue through June 30\. 1,558 feet was the record high set in 1881.Â* This crest will be 6-7 feet above record flood stage and 9.5 feet above major flood stage.
USACE is determining the best course of action to handle the extra flow into Lake Darling which eventually must be released towards Minot. Levees were built for the previous crest of 9,500 cfs and significant failure of the Minot levee system is likely. Emergency construction of levees will continue until it becomes unsafe and secondary diking efforts are underway to protect public infrastructure. The Mouse (Souris) River is not expected to drop below 8,000 cfs until after July 11. Reconstruction of the levees/recovery is not expected until July 12-15, when the flow will recede to 3,000-5,000 cfs.
Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary

The combination of spring snowmelt and recent rainfall events has resulted in unseasonably high runoff at many locations throughout the Missouri River Basin.Â*
Nebraska
The Missouri River at Rulo is above record flood stage and is currently at 26.7 feet.Â* This location is expected to crest at 26.96 feet early this morningÂ* and will stay at near record levels through early next week.Â* Historically, Federal levees at this location are nearly overtopped at 27 feet. The Missouri River at Brownsville is near record flood stage at 43.69 feet. Record stage is 44.3 feet. It is expected to crest at 44.79 feet early this morning.
Missouri
Over the past several days, there have been numerous levee breaches due to high reservoir and dam releases combined with heavy rainfall. In Atchison County, the L-550 levee breached yesterday, June 23, 1 ½ miles south of the town of Watson.Â* The town (population 100) is being evacuated. In Holt County, Levee #9 has overtopped and breached yesterday, June 23, due to increased flows. The towns of Bigelow and Fortescue have been evacuated.Â*Â* The Cannon D.D. levee overtopped in several locations on June 23 near the town of Big Lake. Equipment is being removed from the pumping plant to prevent damage. This is a non-federal levee that protects the Bob Brown Wildlife Area which also includes an agricultural production area. There are no towns or businesses in the area.
Iowa
Gavins Point Dam:
Releases have increased to 160,000 cfs (previously 155,000 cfs). This increased flow is not expected to result in significant increased stages downstream. No additional release increases are planned at this time. These high releases are expected to continue through at least mid-August and are expected to cause rises of ¾ to 1 foot along the Missouri main stem river. Numerous levees are being stressed throughout the Missouri River Basin. Levees are being strengthened with the addition of seepage control berms at several locations. The most significant levee being stressed is near Council Bluffs (Pottawattamie County), Iowa. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for an area in Mills County south of Council Bluffs due to the rise of interior ground water east of the Mills County Levee System. Approximately 300 residents were told to evacuate by this afternoon. One Red Cross shelter has been opened with an unknown number of occupants.
Significant National Weather

West:
Showers and thunderstorms are possible through tonight for parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains; some thunderstorms could become severe in eastern parts of Montana, Wyoming and Colorado. Higher than average temperatures are forecast for much of New Mexico and Colorado and the eastern parts of Utah and Arizona and there is the possibility of high fire danger in parts of the Four Corners states. Cooler than average temperatures are forecast for the Pacific Northwest.
Midwest:
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast through tonight for the Midwest, except in the Upper Mississippi Valley. Some storms may become severe from the Northern Plains to the Ozarks. Cooler than average temperatures are forecast for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and the Mid-Mississippi Valley but warmer than average temperatures are forecast in southern Kansas.
South:
Showers and thunderstorms are possible through tonight in the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Gulf Coast. Some severe storms are possible in from the Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley and from the Mid-Atlantic coast to the Northeast coast. Warmer than average temperatures are forecast in the southern Plains, mainly in western Oklahoma and Texas and high fire danger is forecast for these areas. Windy conditions are possible in the Southern Plains as low pressure develops and strengthens in the Plains
.
Northeast:
Showers and thunderstorms are possible for much of the region through tonight. Some severe storms are possible during the day from northern New York to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Areas of locally heavy rain and breezy conditions are also possible. Cooler than average temperatures are forecast for much of the region.Â*
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico
No activity expected within the next 48 hours.
Eastern / Central Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western / South Pacific:Â*
No tropical cyclone activity affecting U.S. territories.
Earthquake Activity

At approximately 11:09 p.m. EDT, June 23, 2011, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake occurred offshore of the Fox Islands in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, approximately 101 miles east of Adak, Alaska, and 1,045 miles west-southwest of Anchorage.Â* The earthquake occurred at a depth of 38.9 miles. The U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and Tsunami Warning Center issued a Tsunami Warning for the coastal areas of Alaska from Unimak Pass, Alaska (80 miles northeast of Dutch Harbor) to Amchitka Pass, Alaska (125 miles west of Adak). The Tsunami Warning was cancelled one hour later. No destructive tsunami was recorded and no tsunami danger exists along the coasts of the U.S. west coast states â Alaska and British Columbia. There were no reports of injury or damages.Â*
Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Thursday, June 23, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: MODERATE (238 new fires)
New Large Fires: 5
Large Fires Contained: 9
Uncontained Large Fires: 51
Type 1 IMT Committed: 5
Type 2 IMT Committed: 14
States affected: AZ, NM, TX, GA, NC, FL, OK, AR, LA, CO, CA & AK.
Wildfires

Arizona and New Mexico
Wallow Fire â FEMA 2915-FM-AZ (Apache, Navajo, Graham & Greenlee Counties); FEMA-2917-FM-NM (Catron County)
532,086 acres have burned and the fire is 67% contained. Mandatory evacuations remain in effect in for areas north of the Blue River, Arizona. A pre-evacuation alert remains in effect in Apache County, Arizona, for Greens Peak, Hidden Meadows Lodge and the surrounding areas. 32 residences and 4 commercial structures have been destroyed Several roads through the fire area remain closed.
Monument Fire â FEMA-2919-FM-AZ (Cochise County, AZ)
29,065 acres have burned and the fire is 59% contained. The fire is five miles from Sierra Vista (population 3,700). Many evacuations have been lifted and some roads have been re-opened. 62 residences and 4 businesses have been destroyed and 7 residences have been damaged. Evacuations have been lifted for all but a small area that includes 316 homes. One shelter is open with 22 occupants.
Alaska
Hastings Fire
22,819 acres have burned and the fire is 61% contained. The fire is 15 miles northwest of Fairbanks.
Georgia
Honey Prairie Complex Fires â FEMA-2920-FM-GA (Racepond, Honey Prairie, Paxton Road and Durdin Prairie Fires)
280,527 acres have burned and the fire is 60% contained. The fire is five miles northeast of Fargo, Georgia, near the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge.
Sweat Farm Again Fire â FEMA-2921-FM-GA
19,725 acres have burned and the fire is 35% contained.
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

On June 24, 2011, a FMAG was approved for the Medicine Park Fire in Medicine Park (Comanche County), Oklahoma. The fire has burned over 5,000 acres and is 0% contained. The fire is threatening over 150 homes and voluntary evacuations are in effect for 400 residents. One shelter has been opened. 14 homes have been destroyed. (FEMA HQ, NIFC, InciWeb)Â*
Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1997-DR-IN was declared on June 23, 2011, for the State of Indiana for Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-line Winds and Flooding that occurred on April 19 and from April 22 to May 2, 2011, and for Flooding resulting from these storms beginning on April 19, 2011 and continuing. Public Assistance for 32 counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide were approved.
Amendment No. 3 to FEMA-1981-DR-ND adds McKenzie County for Public Assistance.
On June 22, 2011, the Governor requested a Major Disaster Declaration for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania as a result of Severe Thunderstorms, Heavy Rains, and Widespread Flooding that occurred from April 25-28, 2011. Public Assistance for six counties and Hazard Mitigation for all counties within the Commonwealth were requested.Â*(FEMA HQ)Â*


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