Wednesday, October 12, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Moderate rain with embedded thunderstorms is forecast to push north through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Lower Great Lakes early this morning. One-to-two-inches of rainfall is possible from the Virginias to Upstate New York, and isolated tornadoes are possible in southeast Virginia. This system will continue to move slowly along the Atlantic coast, reaching parts of New York and New England by Thursday.

South
A slight risk of severe storms and isolated thunderstorms may develop from Oklahoma and northern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Coastal Carolinas. Rainfall of up to one inch is possible in the Red River Valley and Lower Mississippi River Valley.
Midwest
The system in the center of the U.S. has slowed its eastward movement. Conditions will continue to be breezy behind the front with overnight temperatures dropping 10 degrees on average. Rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected from the eastern Plains through the Mississippi Valley and into the western Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail, could develop in eastern Kansas, southern Iowa and Missouri.
West
The Western U.S. will remain largely dry over the next few days with the exception of some scattered showers in the higher terrain of the Pacific Northwest. Above average temperatures and warm, windy offshore flows through the coastal canyons of Southern California may create heightened fire danger areas. Some areas of the southwest will reach into the upper 80s and 90s over the next couple of days, and record highs are possible.
Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Irwin
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Irwin was located about 555 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico moving east-northeast at 10 mph. Some increase in forward speed is likely later today, followed by a turn to the east on Thursday and a gradual decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Irwin could become a tropical depression later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect.
Hurricane Jova (Category 1)
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Jova was located approximately 80 miles northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and moving north at 9 mph. A decrease in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track the center of the hurricane will continue moving inland over western Mexico today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected as Jova continues moving inland.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. Hurricane Watches and Warnings are in effect for coastal areas of Mexico. Jova is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with the potential of 20 inches.
Tropical Depression Twelve-E
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located about 150 miles southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico moving north at 5 mph. A slow northward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the northeast tonight. On the forecast track the center of the depression will approach the coast of Mexico in the warning area this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center moves inland tonight, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico are in effect.
Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf
No activity
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday evening.
Western Pacific
There are no tropical cyclones threatening U.S. territories.
Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2011: National Preparedness Level: 2. Initial wild-land fire attack activity is LIGHT with 81 new fires. Of these there are no new large fires, resulting in a total of 5 large uncontained incidents presently active in Nevada, Texas, Oklahoma and Minnesota.
Disaster Declaration Activity

Puerto Rico
The Governor has requested a Major Disaster Declaration for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico as a result of Tropical Storm MarÃ*a during the period of Sept. 8-14, 2011. The Governor is specifically requesting Individual Assistance for Juana DÃ*az, Naguabo, and Yabucoa Municipalities and Hazard Mitigation island-wide.
Maryland
The Governor has submitted an appeal for an Emergency Declaration request for the State of Maryland as a result of flooding from Tropical Storm Lee, beginning on Sept. 8, 2011, and continuing. The Governor previously requested emergency protective measures (Category B) under the Public Assistance program, including direct Federal assistance, for the entire State of Maryland.
Virginia
The Governor has requested a Major Disaster Declaration for the Commonwealth of Virginia as a result of severe weather precipitated from the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee during the period of Sept. 8-9, 2011. The Governor is specifically requesting Individual Assistance for Fairfax and Prince William Counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

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