Monday, August 1, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Missouri River Basin Flooding

There have been no new breaches/overtopping in Region VII since July 11, 2011. USACE continues to provide technical and equipment support to the monitoring of all levees and flood-fighting efforts throughout the Missouri River Basin. There are potential overtopping concerns on 4 Federal (no change) and 8 (change/increase 1) non-Federal levees in the basin. There are also 12 levees forecasted to have less than 2’ of freeboard based on the 5 day outlook (this is because of the forecasted 3” of rain later in the week).
Gavins Point Dam max outflow releases from Gavins Point remain at 160,000 cfs. On August 16, the rate will step down to 5,000 cfs daily until reaching 90,000 cfs around August 27. The Gavins Point Dam releases will stay at 90,000 cfs for approximately 2 weeks and then will drop 5,000 cfs every two days, until reaching 40,000 cfs, which is slightly above the typical fall release rate, on or about September 30; possible goal for December is 20,000 cfs. Releases from the Garrison Dam are 110,000 cfs; releases from Fort Randall Dam are 153,000 cfs. Oahe Dams are scheduled to reach 85,000 cfs on August 17 and 24 respectively.
With planned release reductions at Gavins Point Dam, USACE is evaluating plans to begin evacuating water from the Kansas River Reservoir system. (USACE also reports that under current conditions, significant releases will probably not begin until well into September, 2011.)

Significant National Weather

Major Heat Wave Continues
Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and Advisories remain in effect across portions of the Mississippi Valley, Central and Southern Plains. For the latest information see: www.weather.gov/largemap.php
Midwest:
Severe thunderstorms, with localized accumulations of 1 inch or greater rainfall, are possible in the Upper Midwest; the primary threat will be damaging wind gusts. Gusty winds will move from western Kansas to western Minnesota. Temperatures will range 5 to 15 degrees above average. Temperatures will be well over 100 degrees in Kansas.
Northeast:
A few thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the next cold front. Thunderstorms, some severe, are forecast across New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northern Delaware and New England; the primary threats are hail, damaging wind gusts, and localized downpours of over a half inch of rain.
Temperatures will range 5 to 10 degrees above average.
West:
A broad area of monsoon thunderstorms persists today, extending from eastern California and eastern Oregon to the northern High Plains. There is the possibility of strong wind gusts and localized downpours that could cause flash flooding. Gusty winds will occur across southern Wyoming and northwest Montana.
South:
Thunderstorms are likely from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast Coast; local downpours with over 1 inch of rain are possible. Breezy winds are expected across south Texas and the southern High Plains.
Temperatures will range from average to 12 degrees above average. Temperatures will be 100 to 110 degrees in the Southern Plains.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean /Gulf of Mexico
Invest 91L
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, August 1, a large elongated area of low pressure extending from the Lesser Antilles eastward several hundred miles into the tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing a large, but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. This system, moving west-northwest near 15 mph, has a high chance (90 percent) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. This system will bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles today.
Puerto Rico
The ARC has identified 372 shelters in Puerto Rico that have been inspected and are ready to support.

Eastern PacificÂ*

Tropical Storm Eugene
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, August 1, Eugene was located about 435 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Eugene is moving west-northwest near 12 mph and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Eugene could become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific

No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday evening.

Western Pacific

At 11:00 p.m. EDT July 31, Super Typhoon 11W (Muifa) was located approximately 550 miles south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan and continues to track north-northeastward at near 4 mph.

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 6.8 earthquake occurred on Sunday, July 31, 2011 at 7:38 p.m. EDT. The earthquake occurred 82 miles east of Wewak, New Guinea, PNG, at a depth of 6.2 miles. A Green pager alert was issued for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses meaning there is a low likelihood of casualties and damage; as of this report, none have been identified. The West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued statements indicating that a damaging tsunami was not likely to occurâthere is no threat to the US or US interests.

Wildfire Update

Sunday, July 31, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (146 new fires)
New Large Fires: 7
Large Fires Contained: 5
Uncontained Large Fires: 20
Type 1 IMT Committed: 0
Type 2 IMT Committed: 5
States affected: GA, NC, TX, OK, NM, CA, WY, FL, NV, & ID.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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