Monday, October 10, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

West
A cold front will move into the Pacific Northwest today, producing rain inland from Washington, Oregon and northern California to western Montana. The heaviest rains will target the Cascades, the Olympics, and northwest California. Snow levels across the Washington Cascades will drop to between 5,500 and 6,000 feet. Temperatures will be above average in Montana and northern Wyoming but from near average to 10 degrees below average from the Four Corners states to the West Coast.
Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility today in areas west of the Mississippi, while dry weather will continue to the east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Temperatures are expected to be well above average from the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley eastward, with highs in the 70s and 80s across Missouri and Iowa, and the 50s and 60s in the Dakotas. On Tuesday, the Southeast storm will bring showers into the eastern Ohio Valley.
South
Rain and thunderstorms will continue today across portions of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, and western Arkansas, with additional rainfall accumulations of 1 inch possible. An expanding area of rain and thunderstorms will push northward across the Southeast, with the heaviest rainfall targeting southern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. Gusty winds will extend across South Carolina, Georgia, and northern Florida. Temperatures will be below average in the Southeast, but above average from eastern Texas to the Tennessee Valley and northern North Carolina. Dangerous beach conditions will shift northward from eastern Florida toward the coastal Carolinas.
Northeast
High pressure will continue to provide dry, sunny conditions across the Northeast today, with temperatures remaining well above average. Some increase in cloudiness will begin to occur later today in the Mid-Atlantic from the developing Southeast storm, and rain is expected to move into the area on Tuesday.

Texas Tornado

The National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed that a tornado touched down in San Antonio, Texas near Lackland Air Force Base (Bexar County) on Sunday, Oct. 9. Texas State EOC reported to Region VI that 3 single-family homes and 1 duplex sustained major damages, and 10 homes sustained minor damages.Â* No injuries or fatalities reported.Â* There have been no requests for state assistance and no request for federal assistance is anticipated.
September Marked by Above Normal Temperatures in the West and Above Normal Precipitation in the East

During September, a persistent upper-level weather pattern brought above-average temperatures to the western third of the country, below-average temperatures to the central United States, and above-normal temperatures to the Northeast.
Above-normal temperatures dominated the western United States, with five states having one of their 10 warmest Septembers on record. Eight states in the Northeast had September temperatures among their 10 warmest. Fourteen states across the central United States had below-normal temperatures in September, and Mississippi tied its ninth coolest September on record.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Lee brought significant rainfall from the Gulf Coast into the Northeast, causing above-normal precipitation for most of the eastern United States, and alleviating drought across parts of the Gulf Coast. Rainfall totals over 10 inches were widespread along the track of the storm.
The Southwest experienced moderate to exceptional drought during the month of September, with only little relief provided by monsoon rains in the first half of the month. Dry conditions prevailed across the Plains and into the Northwest, with the national precipitation average near normal.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf
Area 1
As of 2 a.m. EDT, Oct. 10, a non-tropical low pressure area centered inland over east-central Florida continues to produce gale-force winds along the east coast of northern Florida and over portions of the western Atlantic. Cloudiness and showers associated with this system have become less organized during the past few hours and the chance of development into a subtropical cyclone is decreasing since the low will be moving over the Florida peninsula today. This system has a low (20%) chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves generally northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Regardless of development, strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are expected along portions of the coast of the southeastern United States through tonight. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Irwin
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Oct. 10, Tropical Storm Irwin was located about 790 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico and moving east at 6 mph. This general motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts, and little change in strength is expected over the next 48 hours. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.
Hurricane Jova (Category 3)
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Oct. 10, Hurricane Jova was located approximately 265 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and moving east at 5 mph. A turn toward the northeast is expected by late tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by little change in intensity until landfall. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for coastal areas of Mexico, from Punta San Telmo northward to Cabo Corrientes. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Lazaro Cardenas northward to south of Punta San Telmo, Mexico.
Area 1
As of 2 a.m. EDT, Oct. 10, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has diminished this evening and is displaced to the west of the center of circulation. Upper-level winds could become a little more conducive for development over the next couple of days as the low moves eastward or northeastward at 5 to 10 mph. This system has a medium (50%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Interests along the Pacific coasts of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday evening.
Western Pacific
There are no tropical cyclones threatening U.S. territories.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Sunday, Oct. 9, 2011:

• National Preparedness Level: 2
• Initial attack activity: Light (72 new fires)
• New Large Fires: 0
• Large Fires Contained: 1
• Uncontained Large Fires: 12
• States Affected: Nevada, Texas, Idaho, Minnesota, and South Dakota

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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