Tuesday, October 25, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

West
High pressure will slowly build in from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow is expected across portions of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and Colorado Tuesday into Wednesday.
Midwest
Rain and thunderstorms expected across the Upper-Midwest Tuesday. Windy conditions expected over the Plain States Tuesday with rain and thunderstorms forecast for Tuesday evening into Wednesday for eastern Kansas and the Mississippi Valley.
SouthÂ*
Dry and mild conditions expected across most of the South Tuesday and Wednesday. Stray showers are possible in south eastern Florida on Tuesday.
Northeast
Dry and mild conditions expected across the Mid-Atlantic States Tuesday with rain showers forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. The heaviest precipitation is expected to fall over western and northern Pennsylvania and Upstate New York. Temperatures will be near average.

Japan Earthquake/Tsunami Debris Field â Moving Toward West Coast, U.S.

In the wake of Japanâs March 11 earthquake and tsunami, a large debris field estimated to be twice the size of Texas is moving across the Pacific Ocean towards the West Coast of the U.S. It is currently located approximately 2000 miles east of Japan. According to University of Hawaii researchers, Drs. Maximenko and Hafner, the debris field estimated at 5 to 20 million tons of debris âcould hit the Midway Islands by January 2012 and the U.S. coast as early as 2013. Last month, debris was found northwest of Hawaii, near the Midway Islands. It included a skiff that had registration markings from Fukujima and was found on the outer edge of the debris field. Researchers state the discovery of this debris confirms the ocean track their computer models have predicted.
Scientists at the University of Hawaii developed 2 model animations to help pinpoint the debris fieldâs location.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationâs National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service had been tracking the debris field. Soon after the tsunami, fields of debris were visible from satellites. Over time the debris dispersed, and as of April 14, NESDIS could no longer detect debris in satellite imagery.
NOAA is convening scientists to review available data, including modeling output, and provide insight on debris fate and transport.

Space Weather

Space Weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/GulfÂ*
As of 5 a.m. EDTÂ*Â*
Hurricane Rina

Hurricane Rina is located 210 miles southwest of Grand Cayman and moving toward the west-northwest at 3 mph. The maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Rina is forecast to gradually turn toward the northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Rina is a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. On the current forecast track, the center of Rina will be approaching the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday morning. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. Hurricane Rina is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over the Cayman Islands.
Invest 97L (Area 1) As of 2 a.m. EDT
An area of low pressure just to the north of Curacao is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Although this system has not become significantly better organized over the past few hours, upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development as the disturbance moves over the south-central Caribbean Sea. This system has a medium chance, 40 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Some locally heavy rains are possible over Aruba, Curacao, Bonaire, the northwestern coast of Venezuela, and the northeastern coast of Colombia today.

Eastern PacificÂ*Â*
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclone activity is expected through Wednesday evening.
Western Pacific
No tropical cyclone activity.

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity reported in the United States during the past 24 hours.Â*(USGS)Â*
Wildfire Update

The National Wildland Fire Preparedness Level remains at Preparedness Level 1 (Minimal large fire activity nationally.) Initial fire attack activity was reported LIGHT with only 26 new fires reported on Saturday. No new large fires were reported.
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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