Thursday, October 27, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

West
High pressure will produce generally dry conditions across the region. Precipitation will be limited to the southwest and Southern Rockies where a wintry mix of rain and snow is forecast. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for coastal areas of Southern California due to dry offshore winds with very low humidity.
MidwestÂ*
Rain is forecast for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A few snow showers may fall across Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. A front extending from New England to Texas will produce rain across the Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley.Â*
SouthÂ*
The frontal system described above will produce rain and thunderstorms across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. The Southeast will be dry except for Southern Florida where rain and thunderstorms are in the forecast.
Northeast
The front extending offshore will produce widespread precipitation across the region. Rain will fall from West Virginia to New England. Snow is forecast in the higher elevations from Pennsylvania to New England and accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are possible. Â*

Space Weather

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/GulfÂ*
As of 5 a.m. EDTÂ*
Hurricane Rina - Category (1)
Rina is located about 115 miles south of Cozumel, Mexico. Rina is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph. A gradual turn to the north with a slight increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track the center of Rina will be moving near or over the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Rina could become a tropical storm later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles.
Rina is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and Cozumel, Mexico through Friday with isolated maximum amounts to 10 inches. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the right of the track of the center. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Invest 97L (Area 1) (As of 2:00 a.m. EDT)
A surface trough of low pressure is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers over the west-central Caribbean Sea. Development of this system is not likely for the next few days and it has a low chance near zero percent of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Eastern PacificÂ*
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclone activity is expected through Friday evening.
Western Pacific
No tropical cyclone activity.

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 4.8 earthquake occurred at 1:37 a.m. EDT, Oct. 27, in Northern California, approximately 35 miles west of Reno, Nevada and 90 miles northeast of Sacramento at a depth of 8.0 miles. There have been no reports of damage or injuries.
Wildfire Update

The National Wildland Fire Preparedness Level remains at Preparedness Level 1 (Minimal large fire activity nationally.) On Wednesday, Oct. 26, initial fire attack activity was reported LIGHT with no new fires reported on Wednesday. No new large fires and 1 uncontained large fire were reported.
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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