Monday, June 14, 2010

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

MidwestÂ*Â*Â*Â*Â*
Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue from Kansas into the Ohio Valley, with hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. The continuing heavy rainfall from the Central Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley has begun to affect the larger rivers such as the Missouri and Mississippi, with flash flooding possible. Showers and thunderstorms will also extend northward from South Dakota and Nebraska to Lower Michigan.
Northeast
A cold front will bring thunderstorms across northern New York and northern New England. Another front along the Pennsylvania to Maryland border will bring hot, humid air to the southern mid-Atlantic while the rest of the region will see cooler temperatures. South of this front, scattered thunderstorms, some possibly severe, with damaging wind gusts and hail, are possible.
South
Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will develop from Oklahoma into northwest Texas, bringing the possibility of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Rainfall could locally reach six inches. Severe thunderstorms are possible as far east as northern Arkansas. East of the lower Mississippi Valley, the threat of thunderstorms will remain low but will increase as the temperature rises throughout the day. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above average, with highs in the 90s to near 100.
West
Showers will continue to linger over eastern Wyoming as the storm system moves out of the region. Colorado and eastern New Mexico could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms. A new cold front will move into the Northwest, bringing a few thunderstorms from northwest Montana to northeast California later in the day.Â*Â*(NOAAâs National Weather Service, the Hydro meteorological Prediction Center and media sources)Â*
June Flooding Events

Â*A series of complex weather systems brought heavy rain, hail, strong winds, thunderstorms and tornadoes to the Pacific Northwest and Northern and Central Rockies eastward across the Central and Southern Plains and extending into the Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic and New England states. Warm temperatures resulted in snowmelt induced flooding across portions of Idaho, Wyoming and Colorado.
Over 50 reports of severe weather, two dozen tornadoes, and several reports of localized flooding and flash flooding were received over parts of the Midwest and the Northern and Southern Plains between June 7-11. Road closures, damaged bridges and structures, and power outages occurred across the impacted areas. Heavy rain and flooding continue in the Central Plains and the Ohio Valley. There have been no requests for federal assistance.
Mississippi Canyon 252 Update

Â*FEMA is supporting the operation by providing personnel to the National Integration Center and additional Logistics and External Affairs support to the Federal On-Scene Coordinator. FEMA is also leading the Social Services and Small Business Interagency Working Group (Claims and Benefits). The Gulf Coast states authorized 17,500 National Guard personnel for activation in order to participate in the BP oil spill response.
The Flow Rate Technical Group estimates the oil spill rate is between 20,000 to 40,000 barrels per day. Oil and gas continue to flow to the Enterprise vessel for processing and a second storage vessel, the Massachusetts, is offloading the oil. Another ship, the Cascade, is standing by for when the offloading vessel reaches capacity at 120,000 barrels.
Relief well, booming/skimming, and in situ burning operations continue as weather permits. Clean up is ongoing in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Oil has been reported at Perdido Key State Park, Florida, and the state has closed the beach. Thirty-two percent of all federal waters are closed to fishing and 11 shellfish areas have been closed.
In Florida, the primary oil plume is 9 miles south of Pensacola Pass, Florida. NOAA trajectories show direct on-shore impacts of scattered tar balls and light sheen through June 13 for coastal regions near and west of Pensacola, Florida.
Â*(NIC Daily Situation Update)Â*
Conditions are Favorable for a Transition to La Niña Conditions during June â August 2010

Â*The Climate Prediction Center reports that over the last several months a number of models indicate the onset of La Niña conditions are likely during June-August 2010. The chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience a hurricane increase substantially during La Niña.
La Niña influences where Atlantic cyclones develop. During this climactic event, more hurricanes form in the deep Tropics from African easterly waves. Systems from this area have a much greater likelihood of becoming major hurricanes, and of eventually threatening the U.S. and Caribbean Islands.
La Niña contributes to fewer eastern Pacific hurricanes and more Atlantic hurricanes due in part to an expanded area of high vertical wind shear. Conversely, there tends to be more Atlantic hurricanes during La Niña because of an expanded area of low vertical wind shear.Â*(NOAA)Â*
Tropical Weather Outlook

In the Atlantic, a large low-pressure system located about 1,025 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing widespread cloudiness along with some showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance continues to be well organized and environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development of this system as it moves towards the west-northwest or northwest at 15 mph. There is a high chance (60%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
In the Eastern Pacific, cloudiness and showers associated with a large area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico remains poorly organized. Some slow development is possible as the system moves slowly west northwestward over the next 48 hours. There is a low chance (20%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
In the Eastern Pacific, a second broad area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has developed a couple of hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Development, if any, should be slow to occur over the next 48 hours as the system drifts westward. There is a low chance (20%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
No tropical cyclones are expected in the Central or Western Pacific during the next 24 hours.Â*(NOAA, JTWC)Â*
Earthquake Activity

At 9:43 a.m. EDT on June 13, a magnitude 5.0 earthquake occurred on the Alaska peninsula, 45 miles southwest of King Salmon, Alaska and 331 miles southwest of Anchorage, Alaska, at a depth of 6.2 miles. There were no reports of injuries or damage and no tsunami was generated.Â*(USGS)Â*
Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, June 13, 2010:Â*
Initial attack activity:Â* light (85 new fires), new large fires: 2, large fires contained: 2
Uncontained large fires: 10, states affected:Â* AK, AZ, NM, TX, HI & CA
(NIFC)Â*
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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