Thursday, June 30, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary

Numerous levee sections continue to experience seepage and boiling and are being closely monitored by authorities. Rain is hampering flood fighting efforts, but the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is continuing flood fighting and maintenance of these levees once the areas dry out enough to allow use of construction equipment.
Currently there are 20 stream gages in Missouri above flood stage. Eight stream gages are on the mainstem of the Missouri River, five are on the mainstem of the Mississippi River and seven are in northern Missouri. Along the Missouri River, releases this week are expected to be slightly reduced in the upper four dams in order to decrease the river stage at Fort Randall and to reduce reservoir levels at Fort Randall and Oahe. Any additional rain could prompt a return to the previous peak releases.

North Dakota
The Garrison Dam reservoir appears to have crested and based on the latest forecast will stay nearly level for the next several days or so and then begin to recede. Releases from Garrison will remain at 145,000 cfs until Friday when it will be reduced to 140,000 cfs. The reservoir is using surcharge storage above the exclusive flood control zone and spillway gates are being used to pass floodwaters.
South Dakota
Big Bend Damâs releases were reduced to 155,000 cfs and will remain at this level until the reservoir reaches its normal operating level; at that point, releases will be reduced to 150,000 cfs. Concerns remain in regards to potential damage to the spillway wing walls due to high spillway flows.

IowaÂ*
The levee system at Council Bluffs is currently experiencing seepage throughout the entire system along the Missouri River. USACE is installing inverted filter blankets in 12 different areas to help with erosion and wick water from the levees to provide additional stability There is no immediate threat to the city but levees and river levels will continue to be closely monitored.

Nebraska â Eppley Airfield
The State of Nebraska, the city of Omaha, and Eppley Airfield placed seepage berms, erosion control, and pumping efforts but have expended their resources. USACE has been requested to provide technical and direct assistance to address multiple sand boils and seepage areas along the levee surrounding the airfield. Significant interior flooding has occurred due to rain and backed-up storm sewers but has not affected the integrity of the levees at this time. Airport operations have not been disrupted.
Souris (Mouse) River Flooding â Minot, ND

Current Situation
The river crest has passed in Minot with a reading of 1561.72 feet at midnight EDT on June 26, 2011, and floodwaters will remain high for several days and slowly recede. As of 11:30 p.m. EDT on June 29, the river at Minot was at 1560.2 feet (flood stage is 1549 feet).

The river crest has passed Velva with a reading of 1514.5 feet (the forecast was 1516 feet) at 6:00 p.m. EDT on June 27, 2011 and floodwaters are slowly receding. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT on June 29, the river at Velva was at 1512.15 feet (flood stage is 1505 feet).
The Souris River is expected to slowly decline as releases are reduced from Lake Darling. The river is forecast to decrease to 1,558 feet (the historical record stage set in 1881) by July 4. Lake Darling releases were reduced even further, to 19,500 cfs, on June 29. Releases will continue to be reduced by 1,000 to 2,000 cfs daily until the conservation pool is reached or conditions warrant. There are no reports of breached levees at this time. Reconstruction of the levees/recovery is not expected until mid-July, when the flow will drop to 3,000-5,000 cfs.

Minot and Sawyer (Ward County), and Velva (McHenry County), ND
Mandatory evacuations are in effect for a total of 13,000 residents countywide to include communities of Burlington, Minot and Logan. Mandatory evacuations were lifted in Sawyer (Ward County) and residents have begun to return home. A mandatory evacuation was ordered for Velva to allow unimpeded construction of emergency levees. Construction of the emergency levees is almost complete; the remainder of the work is primarily erosion control. Water should be off the emergency levees soon. USACE continues its efforts to protect Broadway Avenue (a main thoroughfare in Minot) and construction to protect critical infrastructure as water levels still exceed previous record levels. At this time, USACE does not foresee requiring Broadway Avenue to close.

Trinity Hospital is operating at the Lewis & Clark School (capacity 20) to triage and treat people on the north side of Minot. Trinity Hospital is using reverse osmosis to purify water. Shelter populations in Minot continue to decline. Currently there are two shelters open with 161 (-29) occupants. Three Affiliated Tribes opened a shelter in New Town (Mountrail County) for tribe members displaced in Burlington and Minot (both Ward County). 50 people are expected to shelter there. Three Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs) are open in North Dakota - two are in Minot and one is in Bismarck. Two MCOVs are staged in Bismarck for possible deployment as MDRCs. A Boil Water Order remains in effect for Minot.

Significant National Weather

West:
Rain will fall in the Pacific Northwest. A front will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Rockies spreading into the Northern and Central Plains. Low relative humidity, high temperatures, gusty winds and ongoing drought will result in critical fire weather in the Four Corners area. Dry thunderstorms are possible in New Mexico and Colorado.
Midwest:
The frontal system moving out of the Rockies will produce showers and thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms across the Central and Northern Plains. Ahead of the front temperatures will be unseasonably warm with temperatures well into the 90s. Low relative humidity, high temperatures, gusty winds and ongoing drought will result in critical fire weather from the Texas Panhandle to southwestern Nebraska.
South:
A surface front and a series of upper level disturbances will produce showers, thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms across the entire Gulf Coast. The precipitation will include precipitation over south Texas due to Tropical Storm Arlene but the main impacts will be in Mexico.
Northeast:
A frontal system has moved off shore of the Mid-Atlantic but the low over eastern Canada will produce rain and thunderstorms in New York and New England.(NOAA, NWS and various media sources)Â*

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm Arlene
At 2:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was in the Gulf of Campeche approximately 300 miles south of Brownsville Texas. Arlene is moving toward the west near 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue until landfall.. On the forecast track the center will cross the Mexican coast in the warning area during the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts; some strengthening is still possible prior to landfall. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for La Cruz northward to La Pesca, and from Palma Sola southward to Veracruz, Mexico.
Arlene is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern and northeastern Mexico with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and slides. Tropical storm conditions have reached portions of the warning area and will continue to spread onshore through this morning. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Based on the current forecast, Arlene will not directly affect the United States.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern / Central Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western / South Pacific:Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*
No activity.
Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Wednesday, June 29, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (130 new fires)
New Large Fires: 7
Large Fires Contained: 5
Uncontained Large Fires: 33
Type 1 IMT Committed: 4
Type 2 IMT Committed: 10
States affected: NM, AZ, NC, GA, FL, TX, OK, CO, CA & UT
Wildfires
New Mexico
Las Conchas Fire â FEMA-2933-FM-NM
The fire has burned 69,555 acres and is 3% contained. The entire town of Los Alamos is under mandatory evacuations; most evacuees (several thousand) have moved to Santa Fe and its vicinity. Mandatory evacuations are also in effect for Bandelier National Monument, Conchiti Mesa, and Las Conchas. Voluntary evacuations are in effect for the towns of White Rock and Conchiti. Shelters have been established in Espanola (Rio Arriba County) and Pojoaque (Santa Fe County). There are also several shelters on stand-by.The Los Alamos National Laboratory is closed and non-essential personnel have been evacuated. All radioactive material has been accounted for and protected. Power and telephone lines are down throughout the area. 12 residences have been destroyed and many structures remain threatened both on the Los Alamos National Laboratory and in the city of Los Alamos.

Little Lewis Fire â FEMA-TBD-FM-NM
The fire has burned 1,000 to 1,200 acres and is an unknown percentage contained. The fire is threatening the communities of Sacramento and Weed and 250 homes are threatened. 250 residents have evacuated and one shelter is open with an unknown number of occupants. A FMAG was requested and approved at 9:25 p.m. EDT on June 29, 2011.

Arizona and New Mexico
Wallow Fire â FEMA-2915-FM-AZ (Apache, Navajo, Graham & Greenlee Counties); FEMA-2917-FM-NM (Catron County)
The fire has burned 538,049 acres and is 93% contained. All evacuations have been lifted.
Arizona
Monument Fire â FEMA-2919-FM-AZ (Cochise County, AZ)
The fire has burned 30,526 acres and is 92% contained. The expected containment date is July 15.
Georgia
Honey Prairie Complex Fires â FEMA-2920-FM-GA (Racepond, Honey Prairie, Paxton Road and Durdin Prairie Fires)
The fire has burned 286,698 acres and is 60% contained.Â*
Sweat Farm Again Fire â FEMA-2921-FM-GA
The fire has burned 9,169 acres and is 70% contained.
North Carolina
Juniper Road Fire
The fire has burned 30,593 acres and is 68% contained. Residences in Onslow County along parts of the Holly Shelter wildlife habitat and Camp Lejeune are threatened.The Governor declared a State of Emergency in 29 counties due to extreme fire conditions and current wildfires and forest fires.
Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment No. 5 to FEMA-1981-DR-ND adds three counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance).
Amendment No. 4 to FEMA-1984-DR-SD adds five new counties for Public Assistance and one county for Public Assistance that was already designated for emergency protective measures (Category B), limited to direct Federal assistance.
Amendment No. 1 to FEMA- 1993-DR-NY adds two counties for Public Assistance.



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