Wednesday, August 17, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

MidwestÂ*
100 degree plus temperatures will continue across the Southern Plains. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Central and Northern Plains today as a plume of moisture rises from the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation amounts should be generally light with heavier totals possible in the vicinity of the thunderstorms. Dry pleasant conditions can be expected from North Dakota to Minnesota and western Iowa.
West
Most of the West will be dry with thunderstorms possible from Arizona and New Mexico to southeastern Wyoming. Hot temperatures can be expected from the Desert Southwest toward the Southern Plains with temperatures above 100 degrees expected in many areas, especially across Texas and Oklahoma.
Northeast
Mostly sunny skies will extend from Maine to the Virginias today as an unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure keeps temperatures at or below normal across the Northeast with low humidity.
South
A frontal boundary along the central and eastern Gulf coast will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula. A few thunderstorms are likely across the South-Central states from the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Comfortably low humidity and seasonable temperatures will exist from the Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico
Area 1 (Invest 93L)
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea have become a little better organized over the last 24 hours; however, surface pressures are not falling and there are still no signs of surface circulation. This wave has the potential for slow development before it moves over Central America in a few days. This system has a medium (30%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 15â20 mph.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Fernanda
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was located about 1,350 miles east-southeast of the south point of Hawaii moving toward the west at 7 mph. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is still possible during the next 48 hours.
Tropical Storm Greg
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located about 135 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected and Greg is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday. On this track, the center of Greg is expected to remain well offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
Area 1 (Invest 90E)
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, a broad area of low pressure is located about 700 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Shower activity associated with this low is minimal and upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for significant development. This system has a low (10%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly west-northwestward.
Central Pacific
Tropical Storm Fernanda is expected to cross 140 degrees west into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility tonight.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday afternoon.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Tuesday, August 16, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: Moderate (251 new fires)
New Large Fires: 13
Large Fires Contained: 7
Uncontained Large Fires: 16
Type 1 IMT Committed: 1
Type 2 IMT Committed: 1
States affected: VA, TX, TN, ID, UT, SD, MT, NV, AZ, NM, and CA.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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