Friday, October 14, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Rain showers with embedded thunder storms are expected this morning into the early evening from the Mid-Atlantic coastal region into western New England. Periodic, localized damaging winds are possible from Virginia to western New York. Heavy rainfall is forecast for most of New England tonight and into Saturday. Coastal New England could receive up to two inches.
Midwest
Windy conditions with sporadic rain showers are expected across the Great Lakes Region, the upper Ohio Valley and Kentucky. Wind gusts of over 40 mph are possible from the Northern Plains to the Ohio Valley. Cooler temperatures are forecast across the entire region, promoting lake-enhanced shower activity downwind of the Upper Great Lakes through today day.
South
Rain showers are forecast across Virginia and North Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in far southern Florida. Above average temperatures are expected in states west of the Mississippi River.
West
Above average temperatures continue across the Southwest and Southern High Plains. Rain is forecast in the Pacific Northwest and snow showers are likely in the upper elevations of the Washington Cascades, Northern Rockies, and Montana Plains. (NOAA, National Weather Service, and various media sources)
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf
Area 1 (Invest 94L)
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, a weak surface low located about 450 miles west-southwest of Bermuda is producing a limited area of showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are becoming less conducive for development before the low merges with a frontal system during the next day or so. This system has a low chance (10%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves toward the northeast at 15 to 20 mph.
Area 2
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad low pressure area. Some slow development of this system is possible as it drifts to the northwest. This system has a low chance (20%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Heavy rains will likely continue over a large portion of Central America, Cuba and adjacent islands during the next couple of days.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Irwin

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located about 165 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico. Irwin is moving toward the south-southeast near 2 mph. A turn toward the south with an increase in forward speed is expected by late today, followed by a turn toward the south-southwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, and a slow weakening could begin on Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

Area 1
An elongated trough of low pressure extends just off the coast of southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador, producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Little to no movement or development is expected to occur if the system remains over water. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely near portions of the Pacific coasts of southeastern Mexico and Central America. This system has a low chance (10%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday evening.
Western Pacific
There are no tropical cyclones threatening U.S. territories. (NOAA, NHC, CPHC, and JTWC)

Earthquake Activity

Eastern New Guinea Region, Papua New Guinea
At 11:35 p.m. EDT last night a magnitude 6.7 earthquake occurred offshore of Papua New Guinea at a depth of 28.2 miles. The earthquake struck about 62 miles east of Lae, on the countryâs northern coast, and 202 miles north-northeast of the capital of Port Moresby, PNG. There are no reports of damage or injuries and no tsunami watches or warnings were issued. (USGS, NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Wildfire Update

Thursday, October 13, 2011: National Preparedness Level 2. Initial wild-land fire attack activity was LIGHT with 50 new fires. There were no new large fires or large fires contained. One large uncontained fire is active in Minnesota and one large uncontained fire is active in Oklahoma. (NIFC)
Disaster Declaration Activity

Texas
Amendment No. 9 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4031-DR-TX, effective October 13, adds Anderson, Henderson, Hill, Marion, Smith and Upshur Counties for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance).
New York
Amendment No. 8 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4031-DR-TX, effective October 13, adds Montgomery County for Public Assistance.Â* (FEMA HQ)



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