Saturday, October 22, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

West
Cool and unsettled conditions continue across the Pacific Northwest with a wintery mix and some locally heavy precipation in the Cascades and the coastal ranges. Snow levels will be fairly moderate to high further north across British Columbia. Moist and unstable air will interact with some upper level energy ejecting out into the Plains from the Northwest bringing a fairly concentrated but heavy area of showers and thunderstorms overnight
Midwest
Precipitation will be limited to the Upper Mississipi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes areas Saturday as some light lake effect shower activity continues. This will gradually diminish by Saturday night.
SouthÂ*
Precipation from the Mid-Atlantic coast down to the Florida Keys in the southeast is forecast with the Flordia Keys having the best chance of seeing any appreciable amounts of rain today. Most of the south will be dry execpt for another area of possible severe thunderstorms in the eastern portion of the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississipi Valley.
Northeast
High pressure will allow dry weather to continue through the weekend. However, scattered showers over parts of northern New York and in the higher elevations of northern New England are expected. A cold front will move through late Monday or Monday night with potential for showers followed by breezy conditions Tuesday.

Space Weather Prediction Model improves NOAA's Forecast Skill

NOAA is now using a sophisticated forecast model that substantially improves predictions of space weather impacts on Earth. It will help communications technology and power grid managers know what to expect so they can protect public infrastructure and take protective measures when stormy conditions are forecast. This improvement gives airline operators, oil drilling, mining and other operations that rely on global positioning systems more reliable information about when to reroute flights or delay operations to avoid communications blackouts from storms. Satellite operators can avoid changing orbit or orientation when space weather threatens.
The new model, WSA-Enlil, combines two advanced models, the Wang-Sheeley-Arge and Enlil (named for the Sumerian god of wind). These linked numerical forecast models simulate physical conditions and phenomena from the base of the sunâs corona out into interplanetary space, to Earth and beyond.
"This advanced model has strengthened forecasters' understanding of what happens in the 93 million miles between Earth and the sun following a solar disturbance," as reported by the director of NOAAâs Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colo. The model has been used in experimental mode for several months and has accurately forecast the timing of recent space weather events. NOAA began running the new model on its supercomputers officially on September 30.
For more information go to www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20111019_spaceweather.html

Nuclear Plant Shutdown

On Friday evening, Xcel Energy officials reported the Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant, located approximately 40 miles northwest of Minneapolis, Minn., shut down safely Friday afternoon after a transformer lock-out briefly interrupted non-safety-related power from the grid to part of the site.Â* Operators continue to investigate the cause the lockout.Â* According to Xcel Energy, all safety systems reacted to the lockout as they should have and the situated posed no danger to either workers or the public. FEMA Region V continues to monitor.
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf
Invest 96L (Area 1)
An area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea near San Andres Island is producing widespread cloudiness and showers. Surface pressures are falling across this region. Upper-level winds are forecast to be favorable for a tropical depress ion to form over the weekend. This system has a high chance 70 percent of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it drifts slowly northward during the next couple of days.
FEMA Response and Logistics will conduct conference calls this weekend with FEMA Regions II, III, IV, and VI to discuss regional planning, preparations, and resource requirements in advance of Invest 96L developing into a tropical cyclone this weekend.
Invest 97L (Area 2)
Showers and thunderstorms have decreased in association with a broad Area of low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development of this disturbance during the next couple of days. This system has a low chance (20) percent of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Regardless of development cloudiness and heavy rains could spread over the Windward Islands and northern Venezuela during the next few days.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclone activity is expected through Sunday evening.
Western Pacific
No tropical cyclone activity.Â*(NOAA, NHC, CPHC, and JTWC)Â*

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity reported in the United States.
Friday, Oct.21, at 1:57 p.m. EDT, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred in the Karmadec Islands Region in the South Pacific, approximately 754 miles northeast of Auckland, New Zealand and 105 miles east of Raoul Island in the Kermadec Islands. The earthquake occurred at a depth of 20.4 miles. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a Tsunami Information Bulletin advising that tsunami wave activity was reported at Raoul Island (.6 ft); however, no tsunami threat existed for other coastal areas in the Pacific including Hawaii, Alaska, and the continental U.S.Â* FEMA Region IX reported no reports of damage or injury
Wildfire Update

Friday, Oct. 21: National Preparedness Level remains at Preparedness Level 1 (Minimal large fire activity nationally.) Nationally, initial fire attack activity was reported LIGHT with only 42 new fires reported on Friday.Â* No new large fires were reported. One large uncontained fire continues in Minnesota. The Pagami Creek Fire near Ely, Minn., is reported 93 percent contained. There has been no request for FEMA assistance and none is anticipated.
Disaster Declaration Activity

Maryland
Effective Oct. 21, the Major Disaster Declaration for the State of Maryland, dated Sept. 16, was amended to include Baltimore County and the City of Baltimore for Public Assistance.
New York
Effective Oct.21, the Major Disaster Declaration for the State of New York, dated Sept.13, was amended to include Herkimer County for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance, Schoharie County for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance), and Schenectady County for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance).</p>

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