Friday, December 16, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather:

West
High pressure moving across the Intermountain West will allow for tranquil conditions through the weekend for most of the western U.S. The exception will be in Southern California, where scattered rain and high winds are expected to continue through tomorrow. Abundant cloud cover in the Desert Southwest will bring highs in the low/mid-60âs, while the intermountain region will be in the 30âs and 40âs and areas of northern Idaho and northwest Montana can expect some light mountain snow.
Midwest
Mostly mild weather throughout the region today, with a few snow showers & flurries across the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, and rain possible from southern Missouri to Kentucky. Cooler temperatures will dominate most of the region, but will be mostly near average for mid-December with highs in the 40s from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley.
South
A slow-moving frontal boundary will feature an expansive region of precipitation across the South, bringing rain from southeast Texas through the coastal areas of Virginia and North Carolina. Some light overrunning rain showers will be possible north of the boundary, but any accumulations will be light in nature. Meanwhile, Florida will be partly sunny and warm, with highs near 80 degrees in southern Florida.
Northeast
Winds and precipitation in the region will diminish by mid-morning today as the system exits into the Atlantic Ocean; however, lake effect snow showers will be possible downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario as an upper trough remains overhead the next couple of days. Look for highs in the 30s from western NY to northern New England today.
Damaging Offshore Wind Event â Southern California

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A strong and potentially damaging offshore wind event is expected for Ventura and Los Angeles counties early today through tomorrow. Gusty northeast winds will develop early this morning and continue through tomorrow afternoon with a slight lull this afternoon. During this time, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph are likely across the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, including the Santa Monica Range, as well as the Santa Clarita Valley. Elsewhere, north to northeast wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph are expected across the coastal and valley areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Potential impacts for the area include downed power lines and trees, hazardous driving conditions for high profile vehicles, and elevated fire weather concerns due to the combination of offshore winds and low relative humidity.
Little Change in Drought Conditions Expected Through March

Each Thursday, NOAAâs Climate Prediction Center (CPC), together with the Department of Agriculture, the National Drought Mitigation Center, and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, issues the United States Drought Monitor that provides a consolidated look at the national drought conditions. Each month, the CPC also issues the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook in conjunction with the release of the long-lead temperature and precipitation outlooks. Â*
On December 15, 2011, the CPC released the Seasonal Drought Outlook for January through March 2012. La Niña conditions returned during the fall of 2011 and are expected to persist throughout the outlook period with widespread moderate to extreme drought entrenched across much of the Southeast.
Drought conditions can be expected to persist across much of the Southeast especially in Florida. However, conditions should improve near the southern Appalachians. Since early November, frequent precipitation and seasonably cooler temperatures have resulted in drought improvement across the Southern Plains. Additional improvement can be expected in southeast Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and northeast Texas, while monthly and seasonal precipitation forecasts favor persistent drought conditions across the remainder of Texas and the southern High Plains.
Despite the early winter snowfall in Arizona and New Mexico, La Niña has elevated the chances of persistent drought conditions across the Southwest. Drought development is forecast for parts of California due to below normal precipitation with drought conditions extending north into the southern Sierras due to a lack of early winter snowfall. Increased chances of persistent drought conditions exist through the winter months across the western Corn Belt and Upper Mississippi Valley. Drought improvement is forecast for Hawaii which is consistent with a La Niña winter.
Space Weather:

No space weather storms were observed during the past 24 hours and no space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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