Monday, June 21, 2010

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Midwest
Several thunderstorm complexes moving from the Northern Plains and Central Plains will track eastward across the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley and into the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. Flash flooding, large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible and rainfall could locally reach 4-6 inches. As the day progresses, severe thunderstorms will develop along the outflow boundaries from the morning's thunderstorm complexes. Later today, a new set of severe thunderstorms will develop in the Plains with damaging wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes. Temperatures will be 5 and 15 degrees above average in the southern portions of the region with. highs reaching the 90s in the Ohio Valley and near 100 in western and central Kansas. Tonight into Tuesday, the Plains' severe thunderstorms will develop into several more thunderstorm complexes, again moving east through the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. Damaging winds and flash flooding are possible.
SouthÂ*
The hot and muggy and weather continues in the South. Temperatures will vary from near average to 15 degrees above average, with highs reaching the 90s and low 100s. Nashville, Memphis and Little Rock could set record highs as temperatures reach or top 100. Thunderstorms, if any, will only impact the northern Gulf and Atlantic Coasts and west Texas.
NortheastÂ*
The region will be dry today but by Tuesday, the thunderstorm complexes affecting the Midwest will move into the Northeast, bringing rain to New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New England. Today, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average with highs reaching the low 90s across much of the Mid-Atlantic.
West
Showers and thunderstorms will develop from eastern Washington and eastern Oregon to the northern high Plains. Later today, some of the thunderstorms could become severe from eastern Montana to northeastern Colorado, with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes possible. Some flash flooding is possible in Idaho and Montana. The Southwest will be dry, although a few isolated thunderstorms could develop across the southern High Plains later in the day. Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average in the Northwest and 5 to 15 degrees above average across the eastern sections of Colorado and New Mexico. Highs could reach105 in southeastern California and southwestern Arizona.Â*(NOAAâs National Weather Service, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and media sources)

Severe Weather June Flood Response and Recovery - Update

Background:
Heavy rains from June 11-13 resulted in flooding across parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, northern Missouri, Indiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas.Â* Rivers were reported up to six feet outside of banks at some locations in Kansas and Nebraska.Â* In early June, heavy rain and warm temperatures resulted in rapid snowmelt-induced flooding across portions of Idaho, Wyoming and Colorado.
Current Situation:
Severe storms continue through Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Wisconsin. These storms have the possibility of bringing heavy rain, damaging winds, large hail, and possible tornadoes. Flood Warnings/Advisories remain in effect throughout Illinois and Indiana. The Flash Flood Watch has been extended to June 23. Severe storms continue through Iowa, Missouri, Kansas and Nebraska, possibly producing quarter size hail, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and very heavy rainfall. Flood and Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect for this area and flash flooding is possible from Nebraska to Iowa.
FEMA Response:
Region VII RRCC is activated at Level III (Monitoring) with to support flooding response and recovery.Â* Two USACE (ESF-3) representatives were activated to the RRCC to provide flood-fight expertise.Â* Two Region VII State Liaison Officers are deployed to the Nebraska state EOC.Â* The Region VII IMAT team remains on alert.Â* Commodities are pre-positioned in the area in case they are needed.Â* Region VIII RRCC is activated at Level III to support flood response.Â* A FEMA Liaison has been deployed to the Minnesota state EOC.Â* Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) are on-going or scheduled to begin in Nebraska, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah and Minnesota.Â* No additional requests for federal assistance have been received.
Mississippi Canyon 252 Update

Federal Response:
FEMA is providing staff support to the Social Services and Small Business Assistance Interagency Working Group (Claims & Benefits).Â* The Unified Area Command moved to New Orleans on June 16.
Situational Update:
Booming, skimming and in situ burn operations continue as weather permits. Five In Situ burns were conducted on June 19. The Flow Rate Technical Group estimates the flow of oil remains between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels per day.Â* The FRTG estimates that the total oil release is between 2,135,000 and 3,660,000 barrels.Â* BP has been directed to expand their current containment strategy to increase oil capture to 40,000-53,000 barrels per day by the end of June and 60,000-80,000 barrels per day by mid July.Â* As of June 20, 8,487 barrels of oil and 16.9 million cubic feet of gas have been recovered from TOP HAT over the last 24 hours; 236,989 barrels of oil and 491.9 million cubic feet of gas have been recovered to date.Â* The Q-4000 oil production for June 19 was 5,133 barrels of oil and 9.0 million cubic feet of gas.
Drill Rig DDII drilling operations continue, current depth is 4,662 ft. below sea floor (9,970 ft. below drill floor); 20% complete.Â* Drill Rig DDIII continues to drill the first relief well, now at a depth of 10, 677 feet below sea floor (15,936 feet below drill floor); 44% complete.Â* The DDIII will not wait until the DDII well reaches an intersection of the original well.Â* Long term containment and disposal projects include the installment of freestanding riser components. The outer riser is complete and the first free standing riser components installation is complete. Components for the second free standing riser are scheduled for early July delivery.Â* There are 33,733 personnel and over 6,245 vessels supporting response activities.Â*
Current Impact/Oil Landfall
Shoreline clean up continues in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Alabama is conducting 24 hour operations for beach cleanup on impacted shorelines. Florida is preparing for oil and tar balls to appear in the Panhandle region. Louisiana continues boom maintenance and repair. Mississippi began deployment of boom but no new oil has been observed on the shoreline. The Food and Drug Administration is addressing seafood contamination issues and is coordinating with the National Center for Health Services.
State Response Levels
The Florida EOC is at Level I (Full Activation), with Florida Department of Environmental Protection as the lead agency.Â* The Louisiana EOC is at Level III (Modified/ Partial Activation); Alabama EOC is at Partial Activation; Mississippi EOC remains at normal operations.Â*(NIC Daily Situation Update, DHS NOC SLB, Deepwater Horizon Response and FL Situation Report)


Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FMAG-2846-FM-AZ was approved on June 20, 2010, for the Schultz Fire, near Flagstaff in Coconino County, Arizona. 5,000 acres have been burned and it is zero percent contained.Â* Mandatory evacuations are in place for 1,000 residents, and 1,000 homes, 4 businesses and 4 churches are threatened.Â*(FEMA HQ) Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico
Area 1Â*
A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean and the adjacent land areas. This system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of northern Venezuela, the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands during the next 24-48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Conditions are only marginally conducive for tropical cyclone development and there is a low chance (20%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical Depression Blas Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Blas was located 575 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. Blas is moving toward the west at 13 mph. A general westward motion is expected for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.Â* Some weakening is forecast and the system is expected to become a remnant low in the 24 to 48 hours.
Hurricane CeliaÂ*Â*Â*Â*Â*
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Celia was located 380 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Celia is moving toward the west at 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours.Â* Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph with higher gusts.Â* Celia is now a Category One hurricane. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Area 1
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of Guatemala and El Salvador is accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and showers. The system is moving west-northwestward at 10 mph and is showing some signs of organization. There is a low chance (20%) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

Earthquake Activity

On Sunday, June 20, 2010, at 1:28 p.m. EDT, an earthquake measuring 4.5 magnitude occurred 103 miles ESE of Anchorage and 29 miles SW of Valdez, AK at a depth of 7.2 miles. There were no reports of damage or injury and no tsunami was generated.Â*(USGS)Â*
Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Â*Hardy Fire Update
The Hardy Fire near Flagstaff (Coconino County), Arizona had burned 300 acres and is 25% contained. All evacuations have been lifted. 500-1,000 residences remain threatened but no structures have been lost and there are no power outages. One Red Cross shelter is open with 12-15 occupants. A Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) was approved on June 19, 2010 (FEMA-2845-FM-AZ).
Schultz Fire, Arizona
The Shultz Fire is 6 1/2 miles from the Hardy Fire, near Flagstaff (Coconino County), Arizona. 5,000 acres have burned and the fire is zero percent contained. Mandatory evacuations are in place for 1,000 residents and 1,000 homes, 4 major businesses and 4 churches are threatened in three communities. No structures have been lost and there are no power outages. An FMAG was approved on June 20, 2010 (FEMA-2846-FM-AZ).

Wildfire Activity
National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, June 20, 2010:Â*

• Initial attack activity:Â* Light (68 new fires)
• New large fires:Â* 2
• Large fires contained: 2
• Uncontained large fires:Â* 9
• States affected:Â* AK, AZ, NM, UT, ID, CO & TXÂ*(NIFC)

Â*
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


More...