Tuesday, October 11, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

South
Rainy conditions will continue today across the Southeast, as the slow moving low pressure system over northern Florida continues to develop bands of moderate to heavy rainfall. Excessive rainfall will result in the possibility of flash flooding through this evening across the Coastal Carolinas. Ongoing and developing thunderstorms are forecast to reach eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas to southern Texas. Below average temperatures are projected in much of the cloud-covered Southeast, but anticipate above average in the lower Mississippi River Valley westward.
Northeast
The storm system impacting the Southeast will begin to move northward today. Clouds and then showers will move into the Mid-Atlantic by this evening, with rain staying mostly south of the Pennsylvania-Maryland border. Temperatures will be below average in the southern Virginias, but still average to 15 degrees above average further north. Rain will continue over the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday and then move northward into parts of New York and southern New England.
West
Showers will continue today across much of the Northwest, but will lessen by mid-week as a cold front moves eastward. An additional rainfall accumulation of one inch is expected in western Washington, especially across the Cascades. High temperatures will range from the 30s to the 50s across the Northwest, and from the 80s to near 100 degrees in the Desert Southwest.
Midwest
The storm in the southeastern U.S. will bring showers into the eastern Ohio Valley today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing or developing from Upper Michigan to Missouri. Despite some risk of showers, most of the region will remain dry and warm, with temperatures ranging from average to 17 degrees above average. A cold front moving in from the west by mid-week will increase the risk of thunderstorms in the Mississippi valley.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf

• No activity

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Depression Irwin

• As of 5 a.m. EDT, Oct. 11, Tropical Depression Irwin was located about 645 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico and moving east at 8 mph.
• A speed increase is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn to the east-northeast.
• Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts, and little change in strength is expected over the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Jova (Category 3)

• As of 5 a.m. EDT, Oct. 11, Hurricane Jova was located approximately 150 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and moving north-northeast at 6 mph.
• A slight increase in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the north is forecast tonight. The center of the hurricane will be near the Mexican coast in the Hurricane Warning areas by this afternoon or this evening.
• Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts.
• Some fluctuations in strength could occur today, but Jova is still expected to reach the coast of Mexico near major hurricane strength.
• Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.
• Hurricane Warnings are in effect for coastal areas of Mexico, from Punta San Telmo northward to Cabo Corrientes.
• Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Lazaro Cardenas northward to south of Punta San Telmo, Mexico, and north of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito, Mexico.
• Jova is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over the states of Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches.

Area 1

• As of 8 p.m. EDT, Oct. 10, a slow-moving low pressure system is located about 300 miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
• The associated showers and thunderstorms remain displaced to the west of the center due to strong upper-level winds.
• These upper-level winds could become a little more conducive for development over the next couple of days as the low moves north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
• This system has a medium (50%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
• Interests along the Pacific coasts of southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

Central Pacific

• No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday evening.

Western Pacific

• There are no tropical cyclones threatening U.S. territories.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Monday, Oct. 10, 2011:

• National Preparedness Level: 2
• Initial attack activity: Light (32 new fires)
• New Large Fires: 1
• Large Fires Contained: 3
• Uncontained Large Fires: 5
• States Affected: Nevada, Texas, Oklahoma, Minnesota and South Dakota.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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