Tuesday, June 22, 2010

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Midwest
A weakening east-west frontal boundary will continue to affect the Midwest today from Nebraska to Ohio, while a strong upper-level disturbance and developing cold front begins to move into the northern Plains.Â* Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are likely from the Dakotas and Nebraska to the Great Lakes. Some thunderstorms may move southward into northern Kansas, northern Missouri and the north side of the Ohio Valley.Â* Predominant threats will be from heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and hail. Exceptionally heavy rains have brought flash flooding and rapid rises in river levels.Â* Additional heavy rainfall is likely through Wednesday evening and rain accumulations up to six inches are possible in some areas. Flood and Flash Flood Watches and Warnings remain in effect across the Dakotas and portions of the Midwest.
SouthÂ*
Hot, humid weather will continue across the South today.Â* Most areas will be rain free, but isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from Louisiana to the Carolinas, southward to Florida.
NortheastÂ*
Thunderstorms are forecast across Upstate New York and Pennsylvania, but may reach southwestern New England, western Maryland and the northern parts of West Virginia and Virginia. Some storms will be severe, producing damaging wind gusts.Â* Rain accumulations up to two inches are possible in some areas.
West
Isolated thunderstorms could re-develop in parts of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming, but the total rain accumulation and the risk for severe weather will be minimal. Isolated storms are also possible in eastern New Mexico.Â* Flash Flood Warnings are in effect through this morning for portions of southeastern Montana.Â* Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through tonight for portions of Colorado.Â*(NOAA and media sources)Â*
Severe Weather June Flood Response and Recovery - Update

Background:
Heavy rains from June 11-13 led to flooding in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, northern Missouri, Indiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas. Rivers were reported outside of their banks more than six feet in some locations in Kansas and Nebraska. In early June, heavy rain and warm temperatures resulted in rapid snowmelt-induced flooding across portions of Idaho, Wyoming and Colorado.
Current Situation:
Though the stationary system that has been causing much of the rain and severe weather across the Plains and Midwest will begin to move eastward later this week, conditions will remain favorable for additional rain and severe weather at least through Wednesday. These areas should be on the lookout for Flood Watches and Warnings, including Flash Flood Warnings in some areas.
FEMA Response:
The Regions V, VII and VIII Regional Response Coordination Centers are activated at Level III to support flooding response and recovery. FEMA Logistics pre-positioned water, meals, cots, and blankets in Kansas City, Missouri, as a precaution. FEMA liaisons are deployed to the Nebraska and Minnesota Emergency Operations Centers. USACE (ESF-3) representatives are activated to provide flood-fighting expertise. There have been no additional requests for federal assistance.

Â*
Mississippi Canyon 252 Update

FEMA is providing personnel to the National Integration Center and additional Logistics and External Affairs support to the Federal On-Scene Coordinator. FEMA leads the Social Services and Small Business Interagency Working Group (Claims and Benefits).
Booming, skimming and in situ burn operations continue as weather permits, and relief well drilling continues. The estimated oil spill rate has been revised to between 35,000 to 60,000 barrels per day.Â* As of June 20th, an estimated 2,205,000 to 3,780,000 barrels of oil has been released.Â* Approximately 86,985 sq miles, or 36 percent, of the Gulf of Mexico exclusive economic zone is closed to commercial and recreational fishing.
(NIC Daily Situation Update)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.(FEMA HQ) Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of MexicoÂ*
A vigorous tropical wave located from eastern Hispaniola southward over the central Caribbean Sea is producing widespread cloudiness and showers across much of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and northern Venezuela. This disturbance continues to show signs of increased organization, and upper-level winds are conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple of days. This weather system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Netherlands Antilles during the next day or so as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a medium chance, 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Hurricane CeliaÂ*Â*Â*
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Celia was located about 500 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Celia is moving toward the west near 8 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph, with higher gusts. Celia is a Category Two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours and Celia could become a major hurricane possibly by later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center. This storm poses no threat to U.S. interests.
Remnant Low Blas Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*Â*
As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, the center of Remnant Low Blas was about 750 miles WSW of the southern tip of Baja, CA. Blas is moving west at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds at 30 mph.
Other notable systems
A large low pressure system centered a few hundred miles south of Guatemala is accompanied by a broad area of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days. There is a high chance, 60 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
Central and Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclones are expected through Wednesday afternoon.Â*
Â*(NOAA, JTWC)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Hardy Fire Update
The Hardy Fire near Flagstaff (Coconino County), Arizona had burned 300 acres and is 25% contained. All mandatory evacuations have been lifted. An Arizona Type 2 Incident Management Team is managing operations. There have been no structures lost and there are no power outages. A Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) was approved on June 19, 2010 (FEMA-2845-FM-AZ).
Schultz Fire, Arizona
The Shultz Fire is 6 1/2 miles from the Hardy Fire, near Flagstaff (Coconino County), Arizona. Approximately 10,000 acres have burned and the fire is now ten percent contained. Power lines, municipal watershed & pipelines, buried gas lines & communications sites are threatened, as well as 2,000 residences, 100 commercial properties and 3,000 outbuildings in 3 communities. No structures have been lost. A Type 1 Incident Management Team is in command. An FMAG was approved on June 20, 2010 (FEMA-2846-FM-AZ).
(NIFC)

Wildfire Activity
National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity as of Monday, June 21, 2010:Â*
Initial attack activity:Â* light (93 new fires), new large fires: 3, large fires contained: 4
Uncontained large fires: 10, States affected:Â* AK, AZ, NM, UT, ID, CO, CA & TX
(NIFC)
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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