Monday, October 17, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Lake-enhanced shower activity will be commonplace today as the higher-level cold air overrides the milder lakes below, resulting in unsettled conditions across the Great Lakes and upper Northeast.
South

Moderate to heavy thunderstorm activity and drenching rains continue across much of Florida and the Southeast coast. Initially, the precipitation should be confined to the southern half of Florida before the front begins to rise northward as a warm front. This will bring the rainfall toward the rest of the Florida panhandle by tonight and early tomorrow. Meanwhile, temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above average from west Texas to the Carolinas.

Midwest

A complex of shower activity will impact the Central Intermountain West/Rocky Mountain chain with higher elevations seeing some wintry precipitation. The fast-moving nature of this system should bring improving conditions by tonight though, as a surface high pressure area builds from the west. Temperatures however, will be nearly 10 degrees below average for parts of the Central High Plains with rain possible.

West
Generally fair weather can be expected as a ridge across the west coast supplies ample warmth and clear conditions to begin the week. This will lead to high temperatures across the desert Southwest with readings around the 100 degree mark.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf
Area 1
As of 2 a.m. EDT, a large low pressure system located near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better defined as showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized near the surface center. Winds to near tropical storm force are occurring in the Yucatan Channel over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico and over the western Florida straits. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for development during the next day or so before becoming unfavorable after that.
Some gradual development is still possible as the low moves toward the north or northwest at 5 to 10 mph and the system has a high (60%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys and south Florida during the next couple of days.
Area 2
As of 2 a.m. EDT, a small low pressure system located about 1,400 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming less conducive for development, as the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph, and the system has a low (10%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Post-Tropical Cyclone Irwin
As of 11 p.m. EDT, Oct. 16, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Irwin was located about 430 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico moving toward the northwest near 5 mph. A turn toward the west or southwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next 48 hours and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate in two to three days. This was the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center for Irwin.
Central Pacific
Area 1
As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, a weak surface low of disorganized showers and thunderstorms was moving slowly westward about 900 miles south-southwest of Lihue, Hawaii. No significant development of this system is expected during the next couple of days and there is a low (near 0%) chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday evening.
Western Pacific
There are no tropical cyclones threatening U.S. territories.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Sunday, Oct. 16: National Preparedness Level 1. Initial wildland fire attack activity was LIGHT with 16 new fires. There were no new large fires and no large fires were contained. Three large uncontained fires are active in Georgia, Arkansas and Minnesota.Â*(NIFC)Â*
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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