Monday, October 24, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

West
Snow is expected to develop across the higher elevations of the northern U.S. Rockies Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Scattered rain and snow will spread from eastern Idaho to North Dakota on Monday afternoon, and into Colorado and Wyoming by Tuesday morning.
Midwest
Sunny skies and warm temperatures return to much of the Midwest on Monday as showers gradually exit eastern Michigan and Ohio. On Tuesday, low pressure will move eastward from the northern Midwest toward the southern Great Lakes with rain changing over to snow in the Dakotas. Rain and thunderstorms is forecast on Tuesday for eastern Kansas, the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.
SouthÂ*
Dry and sunny weather will dominate most of the South on Monday with a warming trend expected through Wednesday. Temperatures in some locations could be well above normal in some locations. Showers are possible in southern Florida on Monday. Gulf moisture will return to the Gulf Coast states on Tuesday.
Northeast
Showers are possible across the Northeast today as a cold front moves through the region. Precipitation is expected to be relatively light before the system lifts northward into Canada. Temperatures across the eastern U.S. should begin to warm today with temperatures slightly above normal

Space Weather

Space Weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 (lowest) level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level are expected.
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf
As of 5 a.m. EDT:
Tropical Storm Rina

Tropical Storm Rina is located 130 miles north-northeast of the NicaraguaâHonduras border and moving toward the north-northwest at 6 mph. The maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Rina is forecast to gradually turn toward the west over the next 48 hours. On the current forecast track, the center of Rina is expected to pass north of the Honduran coast and remain in the Caribbean through Friday. Some strengthening is forecast. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastward to the Nicaraguan border.
Rina is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the northeast coast of Honduras with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. These rains could cause flash flooding and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Cayman Islands.

Invest 97L (Area 1)
A broad low pressure area nearing the Windward Islands has limited shower activity at this time. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable and development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur. However, the low could produce brief periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds in the Windward Islands later today and tonight. This system has a low chance (10 percent) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclone activity is expected through Tuesday evening.
Western Pacific
No tropical cyclone activity.(NOAA, NHC, CPHC, and JTWC)Â*

Earthquake Activity

No significant earthquake activity reported in the United States during the past 24 hours.
M7.2 Earthquake â Eastern Turkey

A magnitude 7.2 earthquake occurred in Eastern Turkey on Sunday, at 6:41 a.m. EDT, heavily damaging the cities of Van and Ercis in eastern Turkey near the Iran border.Â*The damage in the two towns was widespread and extensive. Â*Media has reported that the earthquake killed more than 100 in the city of Van and 117 in the town of Ercis, 60 miles to the north. The death toll was expected to rise.Â*Â*Local authorities estimate up to 1,000 fatalities.Â* Media also reports that as many as 80 buildings collapsed in Ercis and Van, including a dormitory, and 25 apartment buildings.
Recent reports indicate that the airport in Van, which was reported damaged by the earthquake, had reopened and was operating normally.
The Virginia Urban Search and Rescue Task Force, VA-TF-1, was alerted for possible deployment; but the alert was allowed to expire Sunday evening.
Twenty-seven aftershocks with a magnitude of 4.5 or greater have occurred since the magnitude 7.2 earthquake occurred. The largest was a magnitude 6.0 earthquake that occurred at 4:45 p.m. EDT.
There has been no request for FEMA assistance.

Wildfire Update

Â*Sunday, Oct. 23 - The National Wildland Fire Preparedness Level remains at Preparedness Level 1 (Minimal large fire activity nationally.) On Sunday, Oct. 23, initial fire attack activity was reported LIGHT with only 24 new fires reported on Saturday.Â* No new large fires were reported.
One large uncontained fire, the Pagami Creek Fire, continues in the Superior National Forest near Ely, Minnesota. The fire has consumed 92,682 acres and is 93 percent contained.Â* All divisions on the Pagami Creek Fire are in aerial patrol status and the fire itself is unstaffed. Back haul items are being retrieved from the fire line and rehab of some areas on the fire line continues. Crews and other resources continue to be released. There has been no request for FEMA assistance and none is anticipated.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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