Thursday, August 4, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Missouri River Basin Flooding

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There have been no new breaches/overtopping in Region VII since July 11, 2011.Â* USACE continues to provide technical and equipment support to the monitoring of all levees and flood-fighting efforts throughout the Missouri River Basin.Â*Â* USACE has developed a comprehensive drawdown plan for evacuating floodwaters from its six mainstem dams along the Missouri River, and release reductions have been made at all projects.Â* Eight (8) Federal levees are being monitored for potential overtopping, as well as sand boils, seepage, or other issues causing weakening of the levee structure. As of this report, all monitored levees have more than 2 feet of freeboard.Â* There are also six (6) non-Federal levees expected to experience less than 2 feet of freeboard or less over the next five days.Â* Most of these levees are agricultural.
Significant National Weather

Major Heat Wave Continues
Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and Advisories remain in effect across portions of the Southern and Central Plains, the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast. For the latest information see: www.weather.gov/largemap.php
Northeast
Lingering showers will occur today over parts of New England. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of the region. Cooler temperatures are expected across the region, with high temperatures in the 70s across much of New England, the low to mid 80s around the Great Lakes, and the mid to upper 80s across the Middle Atlantic.
Midwest
Scattered thunderstorms are likely over the next couple of days across parts of Kansas, Missouri and southern Iowa. Most storms should stay below severe limits, but will produce very heavy rain and create the risk for flash flooding through Friday morning across eastern portions of the Central Plains and into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Isolated t-storms are also expected across the western Dakotas and western Nebraska. Dry conditions will prevail from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley. High temperatures are expected to be in the 80s from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes. High temperatures over 100 degrees will be widespread from southern Kansas through Oklahoma.
South
High heat and high humidity will continue to dominate across the southern U.S. Highs will range from 90 to 105 degrees east of the Mississippi River, and from 100 to 110 west of the Mississippi River. Factoring in the humidity, heat indices will range from 100 to over 120 degrees. Severe storms are possible today across portions of Mississippi and Alabama, as well as northeastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas. The primary threats will be strong winds and heavy rain. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible across the eastern Carolinas and Georgia, and isolated to scattered storms are possible over the eastern Gulf Coast and Florida.
West
Monsoonal rain and thunderstorms are possible over a large area of the Southwest, and locally heavy rain may result in flash flooding. Isolated to scattered storms are expected from eastern AZ to CO. It will be mostly dry from Washington to California. High temperatures across the region are forecast in the 70s in coastal areas, 80s - 90s across the interior valleys and between 100 and 120 in the desert.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean /Gulf of MexicoÂ*Â*

Tropical Storm EmilyÂ*
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Aug 4, Tropical Storm Emily is located about 25 miles south-southwest of Isla Beata, Dominican Republic and about 100 miles south-southeast of Port au Prince, Haiti. The storm is moving west-northwest at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. The center of Emily will move across the southwestern Peninsula of Haiti later today and move over extreme eastern Cuba tonight or early Friday. Some weakening is possible during the next 24 to 36 hours as Emily interacts with the high terrain of Haiti and eastern Cuba. Some re-strengthening is possible when the cyclone moves over the Bahamas. Total rain accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected in Puerto Rico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 6-12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are possible over the Dominican Republic and Haiti. These rains could cause life threatening flash floods and mud slides. Total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Puerto Rico
As of 3:00 p.m., Aug 3, approximately 20,870 customers were without power, and approximately 5,192 customers were without water service due to the lack of electricity. There are currently 4 shelters open with a total of 26 occupants.

Eastern PacificÂ*

Hurricane EugeneÂ*
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Aug 4, Eugene was located about 670 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Eugene is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph with higher gusts. Eugene is a Category Three Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. A rapid weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles, and Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 155 miles.
Area 1
Showers activity has decreased in association with a weak low pressure system located about 150 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be less conducive for the development of this disturbance during the next couple of days. This system has a low chance (20%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwest near 10 mph.

Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday afternoon.
Western PacificÂ*Â*

At 5:00 a.m. EDT Aug 4, Super Typhoon 11W (Muifa) was located approximately 144 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base, Japan. The storm is moving west at 7 mph. Muifa is expected to turn slightly to the northwest with little change in speed during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph. Typhoon Muifa is expected to intensify over the next 48 hours and will then begin to weaken as it interacts with land along the east coast of China.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Wednesday, August 3, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (160 new fires)
New Large Fires: 6
Large Fires Contained: 7
Uncontained Large Fires: 12
Type 1 IMT Committed: 0
Type 2 IMT Committed: 3
States affected: GA, TX, AR, OK, NM, ID, WY, NV, CA & OR.

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment No. 4 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1989-DR-OK On August 3, 2011, FEMA-1989-DR-OK, dated June 6, 2011 for the state of Oklahoma, was amended to add Craig and Nowata Counties for Public Assistance.


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