Monday, November 14, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

South
Severe weather is possible across southern Texas this evening and into Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are expected from eastern Texas to the Tennessee and western Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be 15 to near 20 degrees above average for parts of the Southern Plains eastward. On Tuesday, another system will produce showers and thunderstorms across portions of Oklahoma, central and eastern Texas to the southern Appalachians. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe for parts of eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley.
West
Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through early Monday morning for portions of Montana, with snowfall accumulations of more than a foot expected at some higher elevations. Strong winds with gusts ranging from 60 to 70 mph are possible in central Montana and southeastern Wyoming. More rain and mountain snow will extend from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the Northern and Central Rockies and the Upper Midwest through Tuesday.
Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain are forecast from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic today and extend into the Southern Plains by this evening. Light snow and rain will fall over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Monday afternoon into Tuesday evening.
Northeast
Rain and scattered thunderstorms are forecast today for portions of the Central Appalachians eastward to southern New England. Western Pennsylvania and Upstate New York are expected to be the hardest hit areas. Temperatures will remain well above average across much of the region, with highs in the 70s in Virginia and 60s as far north as Maine.

Severe Storms in Western Alaska

Traditional, seasonal weather patterns continue for the state of Alaska. All winter storm watches and warnings were discontinued as of Sunday evening.
State/Local Response:
Operations for the Alaska State Emergency Coordination Center (SECC) will resume today at 1:00 p.m. EST. Local assessments for coastal property loss, flooding and wind damage are continuing. The State of Alaska has not requested joint Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs). There are no reports of injuries and no requests for FEMA assistance.
Federal Response:
Region X RRCC is at Watch/Steady State. Two Region X LNOs are augmenting the AK SECC, and core personnel from the Region X IMAT are deployed to Alaska, coordinating with the AK SECC and the FEMA Alaska Area Office (AAO) in Anchorage. The Region is deploying Community Relations personnel and PDA teams to Alaska today. Ten Region X generators are available in Anchorage. The FEMA National Watch Center (NWC) returned to normal 24/7 operations on Sunday, November 13, 2011. The NRCC is not activated.

La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12

On Thursday, November 10, NOAAâs Climate Prediction Center issued their El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion addressing the current oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific, and the seasonal climate outlook predicting the continuation of La Niña conditions during this Northern Hemisphere winter.
During October 2011, below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) strengthened across the east-central Pacific Ocean with an extensive area of below-average temperatures reported at depth. Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 0.5°C below average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. In addition, low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds shifted into the western Pacific and over Papua New Guinea. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect the continuation of La Niña conditions.
The majority of El Niño models predict the continuation of La Niña through the Northern Hemisphere winter and then gradually weaken after peaking during the November â January period. The models are roughly split between those that predict La Niña to remain weak and those that predict a stronger episode. Over the last half-century, La Niña events that were preceded by ENSO-neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer (May-August) were less likely to attain strong amplitude the following winter. This observation, in combination with the model forecasts, favors a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña during this Northern Hemisphere winter.
During November 2011-January 2012, there is an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central U.S. with the odds favoring below-average temperatures over the north-central U.S. Also, above-average precipitation is favored across the northern tier of states, excluding New England, and drier-than-average conditions are more probable across the southern tier of the U.S.
Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 December 2011.
Space Weather

No space weather storms were observed during the past 24 hours and none are predicted.
Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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