Saturday, December 17, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

West
Unsettled weather conditions are forecast across areas of the Desert Southwest today as an upper level low remains over southeast California and southwest Arizona, bringing increased precipitation as it tracks east beginning tomorrow through early Monday. Elsewhere, the Pacific Northwest will see moderate to heavy precipitation and the high winds in Southern California will diminish beginning this afternoon through the evening. The remainder of the region should be dry, and highs will be in the 30s & 40s in the Northwest and Rocky Mountain States, and 50s & 60s in California, Nevada and Arizona.
Midwest
A northern stream will slightly amplify today as a series of disturbances track through central Canada and down into the Great Lakes Region, producing light snow showers from northern Minnesota through northern Ohio. Accumulations should generally be an inch or less with a few areas near the shores of the Great Lakes picking up 2 inches. Meanwhile it will be dry from the Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. Look for below normal temperatures as highs will remain in the 30s the next couple of days.
Northeast
Most of the region will be dry except for light snow showers in western Pennsylvania & New York. Accumulations should generally be an inch or less, although a few areas could pick up 2 inches. Meanwhile, much of New England will be chilly, with highs ranging from the 10s along the Canadian border to the 30s in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Elsewhere, look for highs in the 30s and 40s from southern New York to the Virginias.
South
High pressure should keep most of the region dry and moderate today and tomorrow as a return flow begins to increase across the western Gulf of Mexico, however showers are possible in southeast Florida and in southern Texas. Meanwhile, temperatures should be near to slightly above average in all areas with highs in the low to mid 60s across much of the Deep South.Â* (NOAA, National Weather Service and media sources)

200th Anniversary of New Madrid Earthquakes

Exactly two hundred years ago yesterday, the central Mississippi River Valley was violently shaken by the first of a series of three earthquakes of magnitude 7–8 and hundreds of aftershocks greater than magnitude 3. By March 15, 1812, an estimated 2,000 aftershocks had been felt; but it is likely there were tens of thousands more that were not felt or otherwise noted.
The first of these quakes struck on December 16, 1811 around 2:15 a.m., near present-day Blytheville, Arkansas, waking residents located up to 900 miles away. According to reports of boat captains and others on the Mississippi River, the December 16 quake and its aftershocks caused the river to fill with debris as tree-covered banks caved into the river. Other reports said the river flooded large tracks of land, created temporary waterfalls, and even ran backwards in some places. Uplift of over 9 feet was reported at one locality several hundred miles to the southwest of the epicenter where a lake formed by the St. Francis River had its water replaced by sand.
The earthquake made previously rich prairie land unfit for farming because of deep fissures, land subsidence which converted good fields to swamps, and numerous sand blows which covered the ground with sand and mud. The heavy damage inflicted on the land by these earthquakes led Congress to pass in 1815 the first disaster relief act providing the landowners of ravaged ground with an equal amount of land in unaffected regions.
The New Madrid Quakes Not a One-Time Event

We know the 1811 - 1812 earthquake sequence was not a one-time event. The New Madrid earthquakes covered the region with sand blows, thousands of which remain today and can be seen as large, light-colored sandy patches in agricultural fields. By digging into the sand blows, geologists found widespread evidence of pre-historic sand blows telling of similar sequences of earthquakes around 1450, 900, and 300 A.D.
Similar Risk Exists Today

A risk of a similar sequence of earthquakes exists in the New Madrid Seismic Zone today and threatens Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. Recent USGS projections place the likelihood of a magnitude-6 or higher earthquake at about 25â50 percent over the next few decades and place the likelihood of a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake at 10 percent. With large cities like Memphis, St. Louis, and Nashville well within range of a large-scale New Madrid earthquake, understanding the science of earthquakes and the areaâs geologic history helps communities prepare for earthquake hazards and prevent them from becoming catastrophes.Â*
Damaging Offshore Wind Event â Southern California:

Gusty northeast winds will continue to affect Los Angeles and Ventura counties in Southwest California through mid-afternoon today. Damaging winds with gusts up to70 mph are possible in the Santa Clarita Valley, and a Wind Advisory remains in effect for coastal and valley areas with winds of 35 to 55 mph. As of 5:30 a.m. EST today, Southern California Edison reported 5,641 customers affected; however, there have been no reports of significant damages. The California EMA is not activated, there have been no requests for FEMA assistance and none are anticipated. (NWS)
Space Weather

No space weather storms were observed during the past 24 hours and no space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.Â*
Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Earthquake Activity

At 1:06 a.m. and 1:09 a.m. EST today, magnitude 5.1 & 5.3 earthquakes occurred approximately 80 miles west of San Juan, Puerto Rico at a depth of 8.7 & 10.6 miles respectively.Â* No tsunami was generated; and there have been no reports of significant damage.Â*
Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Friday, December 16, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 1
Initial attack activity: Light (318 new fires)
New Large Fires: 0
Large Fires Contained: 0
Uncontained Large Fires: 0
Type 1 IMT Committed: 0
Type 2 IMT Committed: 0
States affected: None.

Disaster Declaration Activity

New Hampshire and Maine
The FCO concluded operations for FEMA-4032-DR-ME, FEMA-4006-DR-NH and FEMA-3333-EM-NH at the Concord Joint Field Office, effective close of business on Friday, December 16, 2011.
New Mexico
Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-4047-DR-NM adds Los Alamos County and the Pueblo of Cochiti for Public Assistance.Â*



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