Wednesday, February 15, 2012

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather:

Northeast
Today should be mostly cool and dry across the region with the exception of possible flurries and light rain in Pennsylvania, New York and northern New England. Temperatures should be above average region-wide with highs ranging from the 40s in Maine to the upper 50s in southern Virginia.
South
A threat for severe thunderstorms exists today mainly from eastern Texas into southwest Mississippi, with rainfall up to 1 inch or more expected in affected areas. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms could develop across the Arkansas/Louisiana/Texas region and spread eastward throughout the day. Some of the storms may be severe and capable of producing damaging winds, with a tornado or two possible. Temperatures will remain above-average in some areas, with highs ranging from the 70s and low 80s in the Gulf Coast states.
Midwest
Rain today stretching across Kansas into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, with rainfall near 1 inch in parts of Missouri & Illinois. Look for partly cloudy skies turning over to rain and snow in the evening for the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley with heavy snow possible in southern Wisconsin and portions of the Lower Peninsula. Temperatures are generally above average across the majority of the region with highs ranging from the 30s up to the 50s from southeast Kansas to Kentucky.
West
A pair of disturbances will impact the southwestern U.S. during the next couple of days, stretching from the Pacific Northwest down into the Desert Southwest before heading toward the east. A cold front moving through the southwest will lead to widely scattered rain and snow showers across southern California and the Central Great Basin today. However, a lack of moisture with this system should keep precipitation light across the region. Farther north, an upper disturbance is forecast to move from coastal Washington State south bringing light snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Sierra Nevada and northern half of Nevada.
NOAA: La Niña Likely to Transition to El Niño-neutral Conditions from March through May 2012:

A mature La Niña continued during January 2012, as below-average sea surface temperatures persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. NOAA reports that irregularities of the oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300 meters of the ocean) also weakened slightly, but continued to reflect an extensive area of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the International Date Line. Additionally, abnormal low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central and west-central Pacific during this period.
The current oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña; but a majority of models predict it to weaken through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere during this winter and dissipate during the spring. La Niña patterns are characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, as opposed to the El Niño pattern which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.
NOAA expects La Niña impacts to continue in the coming months, bringing an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S., and below-average temperatures in the northwestern U.S., from February through April. Also, above-average precipitation is expected across most of the northern states (except the north-central U.S.) and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Additionally, drier-than-average conditions are more likely across the southern tier of the U.S.
Space Weather:

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor; geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor; geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Earthquake Activity

On February 14, 2012, at 10:31 EST, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake occurred off the coast of Oregon approximately 159 miles west of Coos Bay, Oregon, and 236 miles west-southwest of Salem, Oregon, at a depth of 6.2 miles. The earthquake was centered in an active seismic area along the Blanco Fracture Zone, one of several seismically active transform faults off the coast of Oregon. Although earthquakes occur frequently along the Blanco Fracture Zone, they are rarely felt. Generally, the transform motion does not produce tsunamis because the horizontal motion of the plates does not raise or lower the seafloor as is required to produce a tsunami. The USGS issued a GREEN Pager Alert, indicating a low likelihood of casualties & damage, and the Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued an information statement stating that there was no tsunami threat. There were no preliminary reports of damage or injuries caused by this earthquake.
USGS Twitter Earthquake Alerts:
The U.S. Geologic Survey (USGS) is offering earthquake alerts via two Twitter accounts: @USGSted and @USGSBigQuakes. @USGSted (USGS Twitter Earthquake Dispatch) distributes alerts for earthquakes worldwide with magnitudes of 5.5 and above, while @USGSBigQuakes (USGS Big Quakes) is for users who are only interested in seismically derived content. For more information on how to access these accounts, visit: earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ted/.
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Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment #1 to Emergency Declaration FEMA-3336-EM for the State of Delaware closes the incident period effective August 31, 2011.


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