Monday, August 8, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Tropical Activity

Atlantic / Caribbean /Gulf of Mexico:
Remnants of Tropical Storm Emily
As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Aug 7, 2011, the remnants of Emily were located approximately 295 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and 550 miles west of Bermuda.Â* The remnants, with maximum sustained winds near 30 mph, are expected to move toward the northeast or east-northeast at 20-25 mph over the next day or so before they are absorbed by a frontal zone.Â* The National Hurricane Center has issued the final Public Advisory on Emily.
Eastern Pacific: Tropical cyclone activity is not expected in the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific: No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday afternoon.
NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane Season Update

On Thursday, August 4, 2011, NOAA issued its updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, raising the number of expected named storms from its pre-season outlook issued in May. Forecasters also increased their confidence that 2011 will be an active Atlantic hurricane season. âThe atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,â said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.Â* âStorms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than weâve seen so far this season.âÂ* Due to favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions, exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures,Â* the possible redevelopment of La Niña, and climate model forecasts, the confidence for an above-normal season has increased from 65 percent in May to 85 percent. Also, the expected number of named storms has increased from 12-18 in May to 14-19, and the expected number of hurricanes has increased from 6-10 in May to 7-10.Â* Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season (June 1 to November 30), NOAAâs updated seasonal outlook projects, with a 70 percent probability, a total of:
14 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
7 to 10 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
These ranges are indicative of an active season, and extend well above the long-term seasonal averages of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.Â* The Atlantic basin has already produced five tropical storms this season: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily.Â* The last hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Ike in 2008. Last year saw above-normal hurricane activity, but none made landfall in the United States. August through October are peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season.Â* For more information, go to: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...neoutlook.htmlÂ*
Missouri River Basin Flooding

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) continues to support the flooding response along the Missouri and Souris Rivers. While floodwaters have receded, they remain high and continue to stress flood control systems.Â* The dams on the Upper Missouri are fully functional and operating as designed. The system is protecting the public from unregulated flows.Â* There have been no new breaches/overtoppings in Region VII since July 11, 2011. Significant National Weather

Major Heat Wave Continues
Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and Advisories remain in effect across the Southern Plains and the Southeast.Â* For the latest information see: http://www.weather.gov/largemap.phpÂ*
SouthÂ*
Record setting heat will continue across the Southern Plains and the Deep South, with widespread highs of 95-105 degrees and locally higher readings possible over parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Texas. Some relief is expected for Oklahoma tomorrow as a cold front pushes south.Â* Scattered thunderstorms will develop today from the lower Mississippi River eastward.Â* A few thunderstorms will also target Oklahoma and northern Arkansas.Â* A few severe thunderstorms, producing mainly damaging wind gusts, will dip southward from the lower Midwest into Oklahoma, northern Arkansas and Tennessee.Â*
Midwest
Scattered thunderstorms are likely over the next couple of days across most of the Midwest.Â* Severe thunderstorms are possible from Minnesota to the Central Plains and east to the Ohio Valley.Â* The main severe threat will be damaging wind gusts.Â* One to three inch downpours could cause some flash flooding in the central Plains, Mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley.Â* High temperatures are forecast to be 5-10 degrees above average from southern Kansas to southern Kentucky.Â* A cold front approaching from the north will push into Kansas this evening, providing some relief to the heat.
Northeast
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible across much of the Northeast and New England, but no severe storms are expected.Â* Temperatures will vary from near average in the northern half of the region, to up to 12 degrees above average in parts of the Mid-Atlantic.Â* Highs will range from the 70s and low 80s across upstate New York and northern New England to the upper 90s in Washington, D.C. and Norfolk, VA.Â*
West
Monsoonal thunderstorms continue across portions of the Southwest, from southern Arizona to western Texas.Â* A few thunderstorms are also possible from Wyoming and Montana to interior Oregon.Â* With temperatures below average in coastal California, Montana and Wyoming but above average in southern Colorado and New Mexico, highs will range from the 70s, 80s, a few 90s across most of the Northwest to between 95 and 118 degrees across the lower elevations of the Southwest.Â*
Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Â*Sunday, August 7, 2011:
National Preparedness Level:Â* 2
Initial attack activity:Â* Light (140 new fires)
New Large Fires:Â* 11
Large Fires Contained:Â* 4
Uncontained Large Fires:Â* 30
Type 1 IMT Committed:Â* 0
Type 2 IMT Committed:Â* 1
States affected:Â* FL, AR, OK, TX, ID, UT, AZ, NM, OR, NV and CA.
FMAG Approved â Oklahoma
On August 7, 2011, at 8:38 p.m. EDT, the Region VI Regional Administrator approved an FMAG for the Cleveland-Manford Complex Fire burning in Creek and Pawnee Counties in OK. At the time of the request, the complex (consisting of 3 separate fires) had burned over 3,500 acres in rural areas near Jennings and Terlton.Â* Approximately 6 homes have been destroyed, 220 homes have been threatened, and 300 residents evacuated.Â* There have been no reports of injuries or fatalities.
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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