Wednesday, June 16, 2010

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Â*NortheastÂ*
The frontal boundary that recently brought widespread heavy rain to the Central Plains is forecast to move towards the East Coast this afternoon. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the entire Northeast, with the possible exception of northern Maine. A few of these storms may become severe over the Mid Atlantic region, especially across southern Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia, where damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy rain is possible.
South
A deep southerly flow is bringing in heat and humidity, especially for the Deep South and the Southeast states. Daily highs have approached 100 degrees in a few areas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms have been developing during peak afternoon heating; this trend is expected to continue through the day. Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will increase across the Southeast creating brief, damaging wind gusts, hail, and localized rain.
MidwestÂ*
One storm system will exit into the Northeast, reducing the thunderstorm threat in the Ohio Valley and southern Missouri and stopping the showers Michigan. A new, vigorous storm will move in from the west, bringing thunderstorms to the Plains and, by late day, the threat of hail, damaging wind gusts and a few severe tornadoes from western North Dakota to northern Kansas before moving into the eastern Dakotas, eastern Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin on Thursday.Â*
WestÂ*
The weather pattern in the western U.S. is expected to remain active today with another low-pressure system forming over the Great Basin. This system will move northeastward over the northern High Plains, connecting to a very active cold front stretching from eastern Montana to southern Nevada.Â* Heavy rain is expected from the Northern Rockies into southern Canada, along with temperatures that will be well below average across the Northwest today and Thursday. Snow showers are possible for the highest mountain peaks. Severe thunderstorms, including a few tornadoes, will target Montana, eastern Idaho and Wyoming. Strong winds are expected in parts of Nevada and Utah, with gusts exceeding 60 mph possible.Â*(NOAAâs National Weather Service, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and media sources)

June Flood Response and Recovery - Update

Background:
In early June, heavy rain and warm temperatures resulted in rapid snowmelt-induced flooding across portions of Idaho, Wyoming and Colorado.
Storms moving across the Midwest brought heavy rain, widespread flooding, strong winds and golf ball sized hail to portions of Indiana and Illinois. Beginning June 9, up to six inches of rain fell in east central Illinois and central Indiana, followed by severe thunderstorms crossing through the area on Tuesday June 15. Some areas received up to 8 inches of rainfall.
Heavy rains from June 11-13 led to flooding in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, northern Missouri, Indiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas. Rivers were reported up to six feet outside of banks at some locations in Kansas and Nebraska. Waters began to recede Monday, June 14 across much of the affected areas; but additional rainfall over the next day or so could cause additional flooding.
FEMA Response:
The Region VII and Region VIII Regional Response Coordination Centers are activated at Level III to support flooding response and recovery. FEMA Logistics pre-positioned water, meals, cots, and blankets in Kansas City, Missouri, as a precaution. A FEMA liaison is currently deployed to the Nebraska Emergency Operations Center.
Mississippi Canyon 252 Update

FEMA is supporting the operation by providing personnel to the National Integration Center and additional Logistics and External Affairs support to the Federal On-Scene Coordinator. FEMA is also leading the Social Services and Small Business Interagency Working Group (Claims and Benefits).
The Unified Area Command will relocate to New Orleans, Louisiana today, June 16.
U.S. government and independent scientists estimate the most likely flow rate of oil is between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels per day. Relief well, booming/skimming, and in situ burning operations continue as weather permits. BP is required to expand their current long-term containment and disposal strategy to increase oil capture to 40,000-53,000 barrels per day by the end of June, and 60,000-80,000 barrels per day by mid July. Shoreline cleanup continues in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
Oil and gas continues to flow to the Enterprise vessel for processing. On June 15, lightning struck a secondary vent on the Enterprise vessel and ignited a fire. The vent flame arrestor successfully extinguished the fire. Operations resumed following a brief shut down, and no injuries or damage were reported.Â*
Â*(NIC Daily Situation Update)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.Â*Â*(FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico:
On June 16, as of 2:00 a.m. EDT, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure system located about 850 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has increased but upper-level winds are unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. There is a low chance (10 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west northwestward to northwestward near 15 mph.
Eastern Pacific:
On June 16, as of 2:00 a.m. EDT, a nearly stationary low-pressure system is located about 300 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The associated shower activity is poorly organized at this time; however, environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for slow development, and a tropical depression could form from this system as it moves little over the next day or two. There is a medium chance (50 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
A broad area of low pressure centered near the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become a little better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system over the next couple of days, as it remains nearly stationary. There is a medium chance (50 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible over the coastal sections of southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Central and Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday, June 17.Â*
Â*(NOAA, JTWC)

Earthquake Activity

The U.S. Geologic Survey reports that a magnitude 6.4 earthquake occurred on June 15 at 11:06 p.m. EDT, near the north coast of Papua, Indonesia at a depth of 15.6 miles. This earthquake was followed ten minutes later by a magnitude 7.0 earthquake in the same area.
The West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued a Tsunami Bulletin stating that a tsunami is not expected along the California/Oregon/Washington/British Columbia or Alaska coasts. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii determined that a destructive Pacific-wide tsunami was not expected.
(USGS)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, June 15, 2010: Initial attack activity:Â* light (111 new fires)
New large fires: 1, large fires contained: 2, uncontained large fires: 12
States affected:Â* AK, AZ, HI, FL, NM, & TX
(NIFC)
Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1912-DR-Kentucky; Amendment #5, effective June 15, amends the Major Disaster Declaration to include Fayette County for Individual Assistance for damages due to Severe Storms, Flooding, Mud Slides and Tornadoes May 1 to June 1, 2010.
FEMA-1874-DR-Virginia; Amendment #4, effective June 15, amends the Major Disaster Declaration to include King George County for Public Assistance and Culpepper and King George counties for Emergency Protective Measures (Category B) for damages due to a Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm Dec 18-20, 2009.Â*(FEMA HQ)



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