Friday, April 16, 2010

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

South
Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to contribute to the development of heavy rain and thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to portions of the Southern and Central Rockies. Rainfall amounts of one to two inches per hour are expected across portions of south and west Texas. A moderate to high risk of flash flooding is possible across west Texas due to expected rain and soil saturation from previous storms.Â* Isolated showers are possible in Florida and the Blue Ridge Mountains.
Northeast
Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast from southern Indiana into Pennsylvania and southern New York later today. The remainder of the Northeast will see rain throughout the day, with snow possibly mixing in by Saturday morning. Western Maine and northern New Hampshire may have accumulations of snow. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and hail, from the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania.
Midwest
A steadily propagating cold front currently extending from the great lakes to the central plains will reach the northern Mid Atlantic region by this evening, with showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. Farther south, isolated strong storms are possible in sections of southern Ohio. A cold front moving north into parts of parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Colorado later in the day may deliver showers and a few thunderstorms, but storms are not expected to become severe. Rainfall amounts could exceed two inches in parts of western Oklahoma and extreme southern Kansas.
West
Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Northwest and Southern/Central Rockies, with locally heavy rain/snow possible for central Colorado. Scattered showers will extend into Wyoming and the Northern Rockies on Saturday. Light rain is expected over portions of the Pacific Northwest into parts of the Northern Intermountain region through this evening and into Saturday morning.Â*(NOAA, National Weather Service and media sources)Â*
Is Recent Earthquake Activity Unusual? Scientists Say No

Â*Chinaâs tragic magnitude 6.9 earthquake on April 13 and the recent earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, Mexico, and elsewhere have many wondering if this earthquake activity is unusual.
Scientists say 2010 is not showing signs of unusually high earthquake activity. Since 1900, an average of 16 magnitude 7 or greater earthquakes - the size that seismologists define as major - have occurred worldwide each year. Some years have had as few as 6, as in 1986 and 1989, while 1943 had 32, with considerable variability from year to year.
With six major earthquakes striking in the first four months of this year, 2010 is well within the normal range. Furthermore, from April 15, 2009, to April 14, 2010, there have been 18 major earthquakes, a number also well within the expected variation.
âWhile the number of earthquakes is within the normal range, this does not diminish the fact that there has been extreme devastation and loss of life in heavily populated areas,â said USGS Associate Coordinator for Earthquake Hazards Dr. Michael Blanpied.
What will happen next? Aftershocks will continue in the regions around each of this yearâs major earthquakes sites. It is unlikely that any of these aftershocks will be larger than the earthquakes experienced so far, but structures damaged in the previous events could be further damaged and should be treated with caution. Beyond the ongoing aftershock sequences, earthquakes in recent months have not raised the likelihood of future major earthquakes; that likelihood has not decreased, either. Large earthquakes will continue to occur just as they have in the past.
Though the recent earthquakes are not unusual, they are a stark reminder that earthquakes can produce disasters when they strike populated areas - especially areas where the buildings have not been designed to withstand strong shaking. What can you do to prepare? Scientists cannot predict the timing of specific earthquakes. However, families and communities can improve their safety and reduce their losses by taking actions to make their homes, places of work, schools and businesses as earthquake-safe as possible.Â*(Authors: Dr. Michael Blanpied and Clarice Nassif Ransom, U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey. For more information, visit www.usgs.gov. The USGS provides information on how you can prepare at the Earthquake Hazards Program Web site.)Â*
Volcanic Activity

Â*On Wednesday, April 14 eruption of the EyjafjallajÃkull volcano on Iceland created a cloud of volcanic ash that has Met, the United Kingdomâs weather observatory, watching closely. Met forecasters monitor volcanic eruptions as part of the Met Officeâs role in the global network of nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres. Volcanic ash can be dangerous for aircraft, causing damage, reducing visibility, and potentially clogging engines. Metâs Environment Monitoring and Response Centre is constantly monitoring the Iceland area; their first advisory was issued on 14 April and advisories have subsequently been updated every six hours. Following a review of Met office information UKâs Air Navigation Services Provider (NATS) advised that restrictions preventing some flights in English controlled airspace be placed in effect on Thursday, April 15; It appears that restrictions will remain in effect until Saturday, April 17, at the earliest. NATS advises that the situation is dynamic and subject to change.Â*(http://metoffice.com and http://www.nats.co.uk)Â*
Volcanic ash shuts down airspace in much of western and northern Europe

Volcanic ash from a Wednesday eruption in Iceland drifted over much of western and northern Europe yesterday, rendering airspace unfit for aircraft and forcing airlines to cancel thousands of flights.
According to Flightstats, which monitors arrivals and departures worldwide, nearly 3,900 flights were cancelled by European airlines. US Air Transport Assn. said US airlines cancelled around 100 transatlantic flights yesterday.
Several air navigation service providers and Eurocontrol's Central Flow Management Unit restricted or suspended air traffic in line with ICAO guidelines. Irish, UK and most parts of Scandinavian airspace were closed by midday, and Belgian and Dutch airspace were closed by early evening. According to Eurocontrol, the main North Atlantic eastbound flow arrived at European airports Thursday morning with little disruption and many afternoon westbound routes were moved to the south. Mass cancellations are expected again today.
"The extent is greater than we've ever seen before in the EU," Eurocontrol Deputy Head-Operations Brian Flynn said. "The meteorological situation is such that the volcanic ash is progressing very slowly eastwards but there is not a lot of wind. â¦so it is very slow and very dense."
Flight Safety Foundation President and CEO William Voss said that the global Volcanic Ash Warning System "functioned perfectly in a worse-case situation involving some of the most heavily -traveled commercial air routes in the world."Â*(Excerpts from Air Transport World (ATW Online) Resource Center. Authors: Cathy Buyck and Aaron Karp, April 16, 2010)Â*
Tropical Weather Outlook

April is Tsunami Awareness Month in Hawaii. (Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)) No tropical cyclone activity reported.Â*(NOAA, NWS, JTWC, CPHC)Â*
Earthquake Activity

Utah
At 7:59 p.m. EDT, a magnitude 4.9 earthquake occurred in Northeast Utah, approximately 5 miles east northeast of Randolph, UT and 77 miles north northeast of Salt Lake City Utah. The earthquake was felt over a large portion of Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming; but there have been no reports of injuries or significant damage. (USGS)
Alaska
At 9:45 p.m. EDT, a magnitude 5.6 earthquake occurred offshore of the Alaska Peninsula, approximately 59 miles south southwest of Sand Point, AK and 619 miles southwest of Anchorage, AK at a depth of 16.8 miles. The West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued a tsunami information statement stating that a tsunami was not generated.Â*(USGS, West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)Â*
Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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