Thursday, June 23, 2011

FEMA · #1 06-23-2011, 11:42 AM

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Souris River Flooding â Minot, ND

Current Situation
Increased releases from Canadian reservoirs flowing into Lake Darling has resulted in severe flooding in Minot (Ward County). Lake Darling releases will increase to maximum 20,300 cfs by June 27; will stay at this flow rate for 5 days. Levees were built for previous crest of 9,500 cfs; significant failure of Minot levee system is likely. Sherwood water flows expected to begin affecting Lake Darling levels in the next 24 hours. The river is not expected to drop below 8,000 cfs until after July 11.

Reconstruction of levees/recovery not expected until July 12-15, when flow recede to 3,000-5,000 cfs.
Downstream communities of Logan and Sawyer will see record-topping river levels due to water from backside of Minot dikes.

Minot, ND
Several levees overtopping and 10,000-12,000 residents in the original evacuation zones 1â9 were instructed to evacuate immediately after flood sirens activated yesterday morning. The City of Burlington (population 1,060) in Ward County also mandatorily evacuated residents. The Trinity Nursing Home was evacuated and patients were relocated to other facilities.

There are 2 shelters (1 in Minot, 1 in Burlington) open with 52 occupants in Minot/0 occupants in Burlington; 3 additional shelters are identified and on stand-by. Evacuated residents will not be allowed to return home until the Souris River falls below high risk levels â estimated time frame is in excess of 30 days. The Broadway Bridge may close; will cut off north side of city from south. Risk to Minot water system is due to flooding of source wells and water treatment plant; these infrastructure sites are being protected.
The combination of spring snowmelt and recent rainfall events has resulted in unseasonable high runoff at many locations throughout the Missouri River Basin. The weather forecast during the next 1 to 3 days shows a potential for over 1.3 inches of rain near the northwestern area of Missouri and southwest region of Iowa which may drain into the Missouri River Basin.

Nebraska:
The Missouri River at Rulo went above record flood stage this morning and is currently at 26.65 feet. This location is expected to crest at 26.8 feet early morning on June 23 and maintain near record levels through early next week. Historically, Federal levees at this location are nearly overtopped at 27 feet.
Missouri: Â*
Over the past several days, there have been numerous levee breaches due to high reservoir and dam releases combined with heavy rainfall. During the evening hours of June 21, two agricultural levee breaches were reported by the Missouri Information Analysis Center (MIAC). The breaches were north of Big Lake near the intersection of M-111 and M-118. Local emergency managers and the National Guard went door-to-door informing residences in the town of Bigelow (pop. 35) of possible imminent flooding due to the breaches. There has been no additional reporting on this event since Tuesday night.

In Holt County, the Towns of Bigelow and Fortescue have evacuated. Corning is flooded with 8 feet of water due to a breach of the Mill Creek Levee located at the mouth of Mill Creek and Missouri River; evacuation is complete; approximately 20 homes (75 persons) are affected. There was a breach on the eastern side of the Big Tarkio and on a private levee. Water infrastructure is protected at this time. A 4 foot earthen levee is being constructed to protect the water treatment plant in Craig. A levee breach has occurred along Cannon Creek Levee. USACE is allowing flow into a nature reserve to relieve pressure; no communities affected. Holt County Levee #9 is expected to overtop this weekend. The levee protects farmland only; no communities will be affected.
In Atchison County, Levee 550 at mile marker 535.5 (near US-136) is overtopping along a 20-30 foot span. USACE and the County Emergency Management Department predict the levee will fail at any time.
In Platte County, sandbagging operations are continuing for levees 408 and 400 Levees. The levees are expected to overtop this weekend:
In Buchanan County, inmates have sandbagged around the Lewis and Clark Lake. USACE has completed two relief wells at Lake Contrary and will drill four additional relief wells. The county is working on evacuation plans. The levee around the airport has been reinforced.
There are two shelters open; one in Atchison County (Methodist Church in Rock Port) with no occupants, and one in Holt County (Christian Church in Mound City) with two occupants. There are 38 roads statewide that are closed due to flooding.

Iowa:
Gavins Point:
Current releases of 155,000 CFS and are projected to increase to approximately 160,000 CFS today. These high releases are expected to continue through at least mid August. This will result in an increase in river stages: Sioux City, IA from 0.7 to 1 foot;Â* Omaha to Rulo, NE to 0.3 to 0.4 of a foot; St. Joseph, MO roughly 0.6 foot; Kansas City, the rise will be roughly 0.7 foot.
Rulo (Nebraska) - The river went above record flood stage yesterday morning and is expected to crest at 26.8â early tomorrow morning and maintain near the record levels through early next week. Historically, Federal levees at this location are nearly overtopped at 27â. There is one shelter open in Missouri Valley (Harrison County) and seven shelters on stand-by. There are several road closures that remain in effect.
Significant National Weather

West:
A front moving ashore will produce precipitation from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies and as far south as Northern California. Thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms are possible over the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Under high pressure the rest of the region will be generally dry. The Southwest will be hot (over 100F). The heat, low relative humidity and long term drought will result in critical fire weather in southern Nevada, southern Utah and northern Arizona.
Midwest:
A deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes and an associated frontal system will produce precipitation across the eastern third of the country. Severe thunderstorms are forecast along the front from Southern New England to the Southern Plains. On the backside of the low expect rain over the Northern Mississippi Valley.
South:
The system discussed above will produce rain showers, thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms from Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. The Southeast will be hot with many areas in excess of 100 degrees and a heat advisory is in effect for coastal Georgia and South Carolina. Low relative humidity and long term drought will produce high fire danger across the Southern Plains.
Northeast:
The warm front extending from the low over the Great Lakes will produce rain across much of New England.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico
No activity expected within the next 48 hours.
Eastern / Central Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western / South Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting U.S. territories.Â*(NOAA, NWS, NHC, CPHC JTWC)Â*

Earthquake Activity

There was no significant activity in the U.S. or its territories.
On June 22, 2011 at 5:50 p.m. EDT, a magnitude 6.7 earthquake occurred 325 miles north-northeast of Tokyo, Japan at a depth of 19.9 miles. The West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) stated that a tsunami was not expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast; no tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.

Wildfire Update

Wednesday, June 22, 2011:

National Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (170 new fires)
New Large Fires: 10
Large Fires Contained: 9
Uncontained Large Fires: 58
Type 1 IMT Committed: 6
Type 2 IMT Committed: 14
States affected: AZ, NM, GA, NC, FL, OK, AR, TX, CA, AK, SC, MS, LA, and CO.

Wildfires
Arizona and New Mexico
Wallow Fire – FEMA 2915-FM-AZ (Apache, Navajo, Graham & Greenlee Counties); FEMA-2917-FM-NM (Catron County)
The fire has consumed 529,825 acres and is 61% contained. Mandatory evacuations remain in effect in Blue River, AZ. Evacuation was lifted for Luna, NM. A pre-evacuation alert remains in effect in Apache County, AZ for Greens Peak, Hidden Meadows Lodge and the surrounding areas. Multiple highways and road closures in the fire area; US -180 is open. Two shelters are open with 32 occupants.
Monument Fire – FEMA-2919-FM-AZ (Cochise County, AZ)
The fire is located within 5 miles of Sierra Vista (Pop. 3,700). On June 21, the Governor deployed the AZ National Guard to assist. The fire has consumed 28,230 acres, 59% containment. Destroyed: 61 residences; 4 businesses Damaged: 7 residences Threatened: 1,500 residences There are 2 shelters open with 32 occupants.
Alaska
Hasting Fire
The fire is located on State land burning approximately 15 miles northwest of Fairbanks. The fire has consumed 22,819 acres with 61% containment; expected containment unknown. A Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) remains in place for pilots operating in the Fairbanks in the airspace surrounding the Hastings Fire.
Georgia
Honey Prairie Complex Fires – FEMA-2920-FM-GA (Racepond, Honey Prairie, Paxton Road and Durdin Prairie Fires)
Fires are burning near the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, 5 miles NE of Fargo, GA.
The fire has consumed 266,320 acres with 60% containment.
Sweat Farm Again Fire – FEMA-2921-FM-GA
19,725 acres burned, with 35% containment.
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new activity.
Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1969-DR-NC; Amendment # 3, effective June 22, 2011, adds Alamance County for Individual Assistance.
FEMA-1975-DR-AR; Amendment # 9, effective June 22, 2011, adds six counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance), and Desha County for Individual Assistance.

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