Monday, February 28, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

South:
A frontal system extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Gulf Coast will produce extensive precipitation, including severe weather, as it moves across the region.Â* Rainfall totals could be as much as an inch in some areas. The heaviest rain will fall across Tennessee, the southern Appalachians and North Carolina.Â* The front will produce severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, large hail and even tornadoes.
Northeast:
The system moving out of the Midwest will produce extensive precipitation, including severe weather, as it moves across the region.Â* Areas from northern New York to New England will receive a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Snow accumulations in northern Maine could reach 10 inches. Except for snow in the higher elevations of the Appalachians, the Mid Atlantic will receive rain. As much as one to two inches are possible from West Virginia to southern New England. With the ground already saturated, localized flooding and flash flooding is possible.Â* Expect severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic to produce gusty winds, large hail and even tornadoes.Â*
Midwest:
High pressure will build over much of the region today. However, precipitation over the Mid-Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee valleys could drop more than an inch of rain.Â* This additional precipitation will exacerbate ongoing flooding and flash flooding is possible.Â* On the northern edge of the precipitation a wintry mix will extend from Missouri to the Great Lakes. Some areas will pick up several inches of snow.
West:
A cold front will produce precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and eastward to the northern Rockies.Â* Snow levels will range from near sea level in western Washington to 2,000 feet along the Oregon-California border.Â* The Cascades will receive a foot of new snow. Elsewhere, lower elevations will get an inch or more of rain and the Northern Rockies could receive a foot of snow.Â* Gusty winds as high as 70 mph are forecast for parts of Washington, Oregon, Montana and Wyoming.Â*(National Weather Service, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, and various media sources)Â*
Severe Weather Outbreak

Midwest Tornado Activity
Severe thunderstorms with lightning, strong winds, hail and unconfirmed isolated tornadoes are impacting the Midwest.Â* There are reports of wind gusts up to 87 mph causing trees to be uprooted and downed power lines.

Midwest Flooding

Widespread minor and some moderate flooding continue on rivers across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Flooding is occurring in low lying agricultural areas and is not affecting structures. Heavy rains and severe thunderstorms will increase the risk of major flooding to area rivers.Moderate flooding is forecast within the next 48 hours for the Illinois River at Havana, Illinois.Â* Low lying agriculture areas and areas not protected by levees will be impacted. Moderate and near major flooding is forecast within the next 48 hours for the Blanchard River at Findlay, Ohio.Â*(Region V, NOAA)Â*
Texas Wildfire Activity

Gusty winds and low relative humidity across much of western Texas have caused wind driven wildfires.Â* Five Fire Management Assistance Grants were requested.Â* Four FMAGs were approved and the FMAG request for Quinn Ranch Fire (Howard County) was denied.
Drier Conditions Projected to Accelerate Dust Storms in the Southwest

Drier conditions projected to result from climate change in the Southwest will likely reduce perennial vegetation cover and result in increased dust storm activity in the future, according to the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of California, Los Angeles.
A research team examined climate, vegetation and soil measurements collected over a 20-year period in Arches and Canyonlands National Parks in southeastern Utah. Long-term data indicated that perennial vegetation in grasslands and some shrublands declined with temperature increases. The study then used these soil and vegetation measurements in a model to project future wind erosion.
The findings strongly suggest that sustained drought conditions across the Southwest will accelerate loss of grasses and some shrubs and increase the likelihood of dust production on disturbed soil surfaces in the future. However, the community of cyanobacteria, mosses and lichens that hold the soil together in many semiarid and arid environmentsâbiological soil crustsâprevented wind erosion from occurring at most sites despite reductions in perennial vegetation.
Dust carried by the wind has received recent attention because of its far-reaching effects, including the loss of nutrients and water-holding capacity from source landscapes, declines in agricultural productivity, and health and safety concerns. Dust is also a contributing factor in speeding up the melting of snow, which affects the timing and magnitude of runoff into streams and rivers.
Peak wind speeds in the Southwest during the study period generated high rates of sediment transport. Dust storms have been detected by USGS field instrumentation and satellite images.
(Excerpt from USGS; http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2709)

Earthquake Activity

United States
A 4.7 magnitude earthquake occurred at 12:00 a.m. EST, Feb. 28, 2011, 36 miles north of Little Rock, Ark., at a depth of 4.8 miles. Magnitude 3.8 and 3.6 aftershocks occurred at 12:18 a.m. and at 3:46 a.m. EST, Feb. 28, 2011, 37 miles north of Little Rock at a depth of 2.6 miles. These earthquakes are part of continuing aftershocks in central Arkansas, but are not related to the New Madrid seismic zone.
International
A 5.8 magnitude earthquake occurred at 8:29 p.m. EST on Feb. 27, 2011, 23 miles south of Concepcion, Bio-Bio, Chile, at a depth of 12.4 miles. There were no reports of damage or injury and no tsunami was generated. (USGS)
International â Update on New Zealand Earthquake
BackgroundÂ*
A magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred on Feb. 21, 2011, near Christchurch New Zealand. The cities of Christchurch CBD and Lyttelton suffered considerable damage with a number of collapsed and seriously damaged buildings.
Current Situation

• The multinational response effort is ongoing.
• The Urban Search and Rescue team from Los Angeles (USTF-2) searched one commercial block, six residential blocks and four buildings.
• USAR remains active in search and rescue mode, and a second wave of building searches are prioritized.
• Planning is underway for gradual controlled demolition of unstable buildings.
• There are 147(+34) confirmed fatalities, 70 people rescued and less than 200 people reported missing.
• There are two (-3) shelters open with more than 400 occupants.
• Power has been restored to 82 percent of households and will reach 95 percent soon.
• Thirty-six percent of the city remains without water service.
• New Zealand has not requested further international assistance. (USGS,USAID, NZ Ministry of Civil Defense and Emergency Management)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments are underway in the following states: Illinois, Oklahoma, Indiana, Wisconsin and Missouri.
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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