Monday, September 19, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

West:
A cold front will bring precipitation to the Pacific Northwest with showers and thunderstorms across northern Idaho and Montana. Gusty winds are forecast for parts of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. The Southwest Monsoon will bring afternoon thunderstorms across the mountains of Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado.
Midwest:
A frontal system centered over the Great Lakes along with a trough of low pressure will produce a wide band of precipitation from the Great Lakes to the Texas Gulf Coast. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Some areas could receive an inch of rain today and localized flooding is likely. This evening, thunderstorms will increase over the Northern Plains.
South:
The system described above will bring showers and thunderstorms the Gulf Coast northward to central Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. Some areas in the Lower Mississippi Valley could receive an inch of rain today and localized flooding is likely. The remainder of the Southeast will have scattered thunderstorms
Northeast:
A ridge of high pressure will keep most of region dry today. Late tonight the frontal system approaching from the west will bring precipitation, including thunderstorms, from Western New York to West Virginia. Tomorrow this front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the entire region.

Northeast and Atlantic Storms Response/Recovery

New York
Six shelters are open with 159 occupants.
Pennsylvania
Fifteen boil water advisories remain in effect in 11 counties; and 7 shelters are open with 177 occupants.
Virginia
One shelter is open with 110 occupants.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic /Caribbean /Gulf
Area 1 (Invest 98L)

As of 2 a.m. EDT, Monday, September 19, 2011, a well-defined low pressure area is located over the Central Tropical Atlantic about 1,450 miles east of the Windward Islands. Thunderstorm activity has become better organized and more concentrated near the center of the low and environmental conditions appear favorable for the development of a tropical depression during the next couple of days. This system has a high chance, 60 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at about 10 mph.

Area 2 (Invest 99L)

As of 2 a.m. EDT, Monday, September 19, 2011, thunderstorms have redeveloped near the center of a small low pressure system located about 950 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. However, any further development of this system should be slow to occur due to unfavorable upper-level winds. This system has a low chance, 10 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 10 to 15 Mph.
Eastern Pacific
Area 1
A broad low pressure system located about 275 miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of cloudiness and scattered showers. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph. This system has a low chance, 20 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
There are no tropical cyclones expected through Monday evening.
Western Pacific
There are no tropical cyclones threatening U.S. Territories.
Earthquake Activity

Alaska
On September 19, 2011, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake occurred 64 miles SW of Yunaska Island, Alaska at a depth of 21.6 miles.Â* No tsunami was generated and there are no reports of damage or injuries.

Wildfire Update

Friday, September 18, 2011:

• National Preparedness Level: 3
• Initial attack activity: Light (63 new fires)
• New Large Fires: 1
• Large Fires Contained: 4
• Uncontained Large Fires: 12
• Type 1 IMT Committed: 6
• Type 2 IMT Committed: 7
• States affected: OK, TX, OR, WA, AR, CA, ID, MT, and MN.

Wild Fire Activity
Minnesota
Pagami Creek FireÂ*(St. Louis County, MN)
As of September 18, the Pagami Fire had burned 93,898 acres and is now 19 percent contained. Evacuations modified for permanent residents for portions of Lake and Cook County.
The Minnesota State EOC is at Level III (Partial Activation); and no FEMA assistance has been requested.

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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