Wednesday, October 26, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

West
Heavy Snow is expected across portions of the Central Rockies today, producing up to 1 foot of snow. Clearing is expected onThursday.
Midwest
Rain and thunderstorms are expected across the Plains today with clearing expected Thursday.
SouthÂ*
High pressure over the region will limit precipitation to rain showers and thunderstorms over Florida. Temperatures are forecast to be below average.
Northeast
Rain showers are forecast across the Mid-Atlantic and North Eastern States today through Thursday. The heaviest precipitation is expected to fall over western and northern Pennsylvania and Upstate New York.

NPP: Improving U.S. Weather Forecast Accuracy from Space

On Oct. 28, the launch of a new polar-orbiting environmental satellite will enable NOAA to continue issuing accurate forecasts and provide advance warning for severe weather, such as deadly tornado outbreaks, blistering heat waves, floods, snowfall and wildfires.
The satellite, NASA's NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP), orbits Earth every 102 minutes, flying 512 miles above the surface, and capturing data from the Earth's land, oceans, and atmosphere.
NPP Instruments

• Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite, or VIIRS: will survey broad swaths of the land, oceans and air, enabling scientists to monitor everything from phytoplankton and other organisms in the sea, to vegetation and forest cover to the amount of sea ice at the poles.
• Ozone Mapper Profiler Suite or OMPSD: maps and profiles ozone throughout the atmosphere.
• Clouds and Earthâs Radiant Energy System, or CERES: monitors the amount of energy entering and exiting the top of the atmosphere.
• Cross-track Infrared Sounder or CrlS: measures temperature profiles with greater resolution, improving climate prediction and both short-and-long-term weather forecasting, and scientistsâ understanding of major climate shifts.
• Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder or ATMS: works in conjunction with CrlS to make detailed vertical profiles of atmospheric pressure, heat and moisture.

The data is used by NOAA forecasters to detect the potential for dangerous weather conditions days â even several weeks â in advance. For example, data from polar-orbiting satellites helped NOAA meteorologists predict, 5 days in advance, the major snowstorms that struck the Atlantic Coast in February 2010 ("Snowmageddon") and paralyzed New York City in December 2010.
While NPP is a NASA mission, NOAA feeds the data collected from the satellite's new, sophisticated instruments into the forecast models. The satellite data is used to generate dozens of products, including measurements of cloud and vegetation cover, ocean color, and sea and land surface temperatures. NOAA meteorologists use these products, especially measurements of the distribution of moisture and heat in the atmosphere, to improve forecasts.
NPP data replaces data from the NOAA-19 satellite in the 'afternoon orbit,' meaning that the satellite passes over the U.S. during full daylight hours. The afternoon orbit is especially important since some of the spacecraft's sensors work best in full daylight. NPP is also the bridge that links NOAA's current polar-orbiting satellites to the next generation of advanced spacecraft called the Joint Polar Satellite System.
In addition to providing data for accurate weather forecasting, NPP tracks ash plumes from volcanic eruptions, helps emergency responders fight wildfires, helps advance climate science, accurately measures the amount of Arctic sea ice and changes in the ozone hole, and monitors phytoplankton and other organisms in the ocean.
NOAA will process and distribute NPP data from its Satellite Operations Facility in Suitland, Md., to key users including NOAA's National Weather Service and others around the world.

Space Weather

Space Weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.Â* Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/GulfÂ*
As of 5 a.m. EDTÂ*
Hurricane Rina

Hurricane Rina is located 235 miles south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and moving toward the west near 5 mph. The maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. A gradual turn to the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today. Rina is a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. On the current forecast track, the center of Rina will be moving near or over the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thursday morning. Rina has the potential to become a major hurricane today or tonight. Some weakening is likely after Rina moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.
Invest 97L (Area 1) (As of 2 a.m. EDT)
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough over the South-central Caribbean Sea have continued to decrease in intensity and organization. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it moves generally westward at 15 mph over the next couple of days. This system has a low chance, 10 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Eastern PacificÂ*
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclone activity is expected through Thursday evening.
Western Pacific
No tropical cyclone activity.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

The National Wildland Fire Preparedness Level remains at Preparedness Level 1 (Minimal large fire activity nationally.) On Tuesday, Oct. 25, initial fire attack activity was reported LIGHT with only 52 new fires reported on Tuesday.Â* Two new large fires were reported, 1 large fire contained and 1 uncontained large fire.
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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