Friday, June 18, 2010

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

MidwestÂ*
A strong low pressure area will move from Montana into North Dakota bringing winds with gusts over 50 mph across portions of the western and central Dakotas.Â* Severe thunderstorms, likely to produce large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are forecast for portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and western Iowa.
SouthÂ*
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for much of the region from the Mississippi River east to South Carolina.Â* The most widespread storms will occur from Missouri to Florida and Georgia, bringing the possibility of gusty winds and hail.Â* Texas will be dry except for an isolated storm or two along the Gulf Coast area.
NortheastÂ*
Sunny and warm conditions are forecast over the entire region.
WestÂ*
Rain and wind are forecast for Idaho and Montana.Â* Some rain could be heavy in northern Montana.Â* Snow is forecast for the mountains of Montana into Wyoming including the Grand Tetons and Yellowstone National Park.Â* Washington and western Oregon will receive a few showers.(NOAAâs National Weather Service, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and media sources)

June Flood Response and Recovery - Update

Background:
Heavy rains from June 11-13 led to flooding in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, northern Missouri, Indiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas. Rivers were reported up to six feet outside of banks at some locations in Kansas and Nebraska. Waters began to recede Monday, June 14 across much of the affected areas. In early June, heavy rain and warm temperatures resulted in rapid snowmelt-induced flooding across portions of Idaho, Wyoming and Colorado.
Current Situation:
Flash flooding is possible over the next few days for portions of Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri. Strong storms are expected overnight in northern and eastern Nebraska, aggravating already high water levels and flood conditions throughout the region. Along the Missouri River, additional rain may add to rises expected due to increased release of water from Gavinâs Point Dam.
FEMA Response:
The Region VII and Region VIII Regional Response Coordination Centers are activated at Level III to support flooding response and recovery. FEMA Logistics pre-positioned water, meals, cots, and blankets in Kansas City, Missouri, as a precaution. A FEMA liaison is currently deployed to the Nebraska Emergency Operations Center. USACE (ESF-3) representatives are activated to provide flood-fighting expertise.

Mississippi Canyon 252 Update

FEMA is providing personnel to the National Integration Center and additional Logistics and External Affairs support to the Federal On-Scene Coordinator. FEMA leads the Social Services and Small Business Interagency Working Group (Claims and Benefits).
U.S. government and independent scientists estimate the most likely flow rate of oil is between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels per day. Relief well, booming/skimming, and in situ burning operations continue as weather permits. BP is required to expand their current long-term containment and disposal strategy to increase oil capture to 40,000-53,000 barrels per day by the end of June, and 60,000-80,000 barrels per day by mid July.
Shoreline cleanup continues in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The coastline west of Panama City, Fla. may be impacted by Friday June 18. NOAA expanded the closed fishing area in the Gulf of Mexico to Panama City Beach in order to include additional areas off of the Florida Panhandle. The space represents 33% (80,806 square miles) of the exclusive commercial and recreational economic fishing zone.
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity.Â*(FEMA HQ)Â*
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of MexicoÂ*
A strong tropical wave is expected to move across the Lesser Antilles today accompanied by a large area of thunderstorms.Â* There are no signs of a surface circulation and upper winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for development.Â* There is a low chance, 20 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.Â* Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern PacificÂ*
At 2:00 a.m. PDT the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located about 270 miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico.Â* Blas is moving toward the west-northwest at 5 mph.Â* This general motion is expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the west.Â* Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.Â* Little change in strength is expected during the next 48 hours.
An area of showers and thunderstorms centered a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave.Â* There are no signs of organization, and development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves west-northwest near 10 mph.Â* There is a low chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity as of Thursday, June 17, 2010:Â*
There were 113 new light fires, 2 new large fires, of which 1 is contained, and11 uncontained large fires affecting the states of Alaska, Arizona, Florida, New Mexico, Utah, and Texas.Â*(NIFC)
Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)


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