Wednesday, June 22, 2011

FEMA · #1 06-23-2011, 11:42 AM

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Souris River Flooding â Minot, ND

Increased releases from Canadian reservoirs continue flowing into Lake Darling. Inflows to Lake Darling are expected to peak at 20,250 cfs on June 27. Releases from Lake Darling also increased, causing severe flooding in City of Minot (population 41,000) in Ward County. Current releases from Lake Darling is 8,000 cfs, and will increase today to 1,000 cfs every 6 hours to reach 15,000 cfs on June 23.
Some Minot levees are not likely to hold; secondary dikes are being built to protect infrastructure; sandbagging efforts continue. Broadway Bridge may have to close; if so, this will cut off the north side of Minot from the south. Mandatory evacuation orders have been reinstated for 10,000-12,000 Minot residents in the original evacuation zones. Ward County residents near the Souris River must evacuate by today, June 22. The Trinity Nursing Home has been evacuated.

Missouri River Basin Flooding Summary

The combination of spring snowmelt and recent rainfall events has resulted in unseasonable high runoff at many locations throughout the Missouri River Basin. In Region VII, the Missouri River Basin impacts tributaries in Nebraska, northern Kansas, western and southern Iowa, and northwest and central Missouri.

Nebraska:
Missouri River gauges at Plattsmouth and Brownsville have moved slightly above major flood stage due to rainfall, but are forecasted to gradually decrease below major flood stage over the next few days. The gauge at Rulo is approaching record flood stage. There was some minor flooding on the North Platte due to 3 to 6 inches of rainfall; there were no significant impacts.
Missouri:
The City of Craig issued an evacuation order, asking all residents to vacate their homes by noon on Tuesday, June 21. The city and surrounding areas have been under an evacuation notice for three weeks from the County Commission in the face of imminent floodwaters. A Red Cross Shelter is available in Mound City.
Little Tarkio Creek levee breached overnight. The water is threatening Fortescue, MO and is expected to flood the small town from west to east. It is primarily evacuated already. No request for assistance at this time.
Interstate 29 remains closed along parts of northwest Missouri and southeast Iowa.
Iowa:
Gavins Point will increase from 150,000 CFS to 155,000 cfs on Wednesday, June 22 and then to 160,000 cfs on ThursdayJune 23. The impact of an additional 10,000 cfs to the current 150,000 cfs will result in an increase in river stages from .7 to 1 foot at Sioux City, Iowa. This is due to recent weather systems moving through Nebraska, Montana, the Dakotas, and Iowa which has caused some adjustments to releases. Heavy rainfall during the last 48 hours in the Dakotas has totaled approximately six inches. The weather forecast over the next 1 to 3 days indicates a potential for less than a half inch of rainfall over the State of Iowa. There is one shelter open in Missouri Valley (Harrison county) and seven shelters on stand-by. There are several road closures that remain in effect.

Kansas:
Kansas reservoirs are making minimal releases to prepare for the arrival ofÂ*water from Gavins Point. No breaches have occurred in levees along the Missouri River in Kansas. No significant damages are being reported at this time along the river on the Kansas side.Â* Any flooding has been confined to low-lying agricultural lands and rural roads near the river. Shelters have been identified, but no shelters are open at this time.
No Federal Levee units are projected to overtop under low flow scenario
In Doniphan County, levee R-500 (KS) is projected to overtop under high flow scenario.
In Leavenworth County, once the Missouri River reaches 25.15 feet (769.2 feet) water overtops the levee north of Fort Leavenworth, affecting Sherman Field (a general aviation airport).Â* All aircraft have been removed from the Field.Â* The levee will be overtopped and the field flooded by the lower projected water levels.

Significant National Weather

West:
A front moving ashore will produce precipitation from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies. Under high pressure the rest of the region will be generally dry. A warming trend will contribute to melt-out of the western snowpack. There will be significant rises on Western rivers and their tributaries. The Southwest will be hot but lighter winds will assist firefighting efforts.
Midwest:
A deep low pressure system is over the Upper Mississippi Valley with a cold front extending to the Southern Plains and a warm front extending eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. On the backside of the low expect rain over the Northern Plains. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico interacting with the frontal system will produce rain showers, thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms (including possible tornadoes) from the Great Lakes south through the Mississippi Valley.
South:
The system discussed above will produce rain showers, thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms (including possible tornadoes) from Texas across the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Gulf Coast. The Southeast will hot with many areas in excess of 100 degrees. Low relative humidity and long term drought will produce high fire danger across the Southern Plains.
Northeast:
The warm front extending from the low over the Central Plains will produce showers, thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms across much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico
No activity expected within the next 48 hours.
Eastern / Central Pacific
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Beatriz which has dissipated about 130 miles southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western / South Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting U.S. territories.
Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Tuesday, June 21, 2011:

National Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: Moderate (210 new fires)
New Large Fires: 17
Large Fires Contained: 6
Uncontained Large Fires: 52
Type 1 IMT Committed: 5
Type 2 IMT Committed: 13
States affected: AZ, NM, GA, NC, FL, OK, AR, TX, CA, AK, SC, and CO.

Wildfires
Arizona and New Mexico
Wallow Fire â FEMA 2915-FM-AZ (Apache, Navajo, Graham & Greenlee Counties); FEMA-2917-FM-NM (Catron County)
The fire has consumed 527,774 acres and is 58% contained. Mandatory evacuations remain in effect in Blue River, AZ. A pre-evacuation alert remains in effect in Apache County, AZ for Greens Peak, Hidden Meadows Lodge and the surrounding areas. There are multiple highways and road closures in the fire area.

Monument Fire â FEMA-2919-FM-AZ (Cochise County, AZ)
The fire is located within 5 miles of Sierra Vista (Pop. 3,700). The fire has consumed 27,190 acres, 40% containment. On June 21, the Governor deployed the AZ National Guard to assist. The fire has destroyed 61 residences and 4 businesses. The fire has damaged 7 residences and continues to threaten 1,500 residences. There is one shelters open with 59 occupants. Mandatory evacuations are in effect for areas west of Highway 92 between Ramsey Canyon Rd. south to Kachina Rd. and north to Fort Huachuca. Initially, there were 9,500 evacuated. Residents have been allowed back into the more southern evacuation areas. Secondary evacuation estimated at3,496 people and 1,477 residences
Horseshoe 2 Fire â FEMA-2907-FM-AZ (Cochise County, NM)
The fire has consumed 223,214 acres and is 90% contained; full containment is expected today, June 22.
Alaska
Hasting Fire
The fire is located on State land burning approximately 15 miles northwest of Fairbanks. The fire has consumed 22,819 acres with 61% containment; expected containment unknown. The Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) remains in place for pilots operating in the Fairbanks airspace surrounding the Hastings Fire.
Colorado
Duckett Fire â FEMA-2923-FM-CO (Westcliffe, CO)
The fire has consumed 4,358 acres and is 80% contained. Evacuations have been lifted for the Eagle Peak and Brush Creek Subdivisions, and Maytag Ranch.Â*
Georgia
Honey Prairie Complex Fires â FEMA-2920-FM-GA (Racepond, Honey Prairie, Paxton Road and Durdin Prairie Fires)
Fires are burning near the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge, 5 miles NE of Fargo, GA. The fire has consumed 251,570 acres with 60% containment.
Sweat Farm Again Fire â FEMA-2921-FM-GA
19,725 acres burned, with 35% containment.
Texas
Dyre Mills Fire (Grimes County, TX)
The fire has consumed 5,800 acres with 85% containment. A mandatory evacuation is in effect for an area of approximately 1,800 homes and businesses. The American Red Cross opened a shelter at the Navasota High School.
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new activity.
Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1989-DR-OK; Amendment # 2, effective June 21, 2011, adds six counties for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance), and six counties for Public Assistance.
FEMA-1979-DR-TN; Amendment # 4, effective June 21, 2011, adds Weakley County for Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance.
FEMA-1980-DR-MO; Amendment # 8, effective June 21, 2011, adds Carter and Wayne Counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance), and Lawrence County for Individual Assistance.

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