Tuesday, August 2, 2011

[FEMA]

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Missouri River Basin Flooding

There have been no new breaches/overtopping in Region VII since July 11, 2011.
USACE continues to provide technical and equipment support to the monitoring of all levees and flood-fighting efforts throughout the Missouri River Basin.

USACE strategy for evacuating floodwaters from six mainstem dams along Missouri River:

• Gavins Point Dam releases were reduced to 150,000 cfs today. On August 16, the rate at Gavins Point Dam will begin to step down 5,000 cfs daily until reaching 90,000 cfs around August 27. The Gavins Point Dam releases will stay at 90,000 cfs for approximately 2 weeks and then will drop 5,000 cfs every two days, until reaching 40,000 cfs (slightly above the typical fall release rate) on or about September 30.
• Releases from Garrison and Oahe dams are scheduled to reach 85,000 cfs on Aug. 17 and 24, respectively. This is the estimated release to get the water back within the river channel an to begin floodplain drainage along the river at Bismarck, N.D. and Pierre, S.D.

This plan provides the opportunity for the Corps to begin inspection and repair of levees and other critical infrastructure and ensures adequate storage for the 2012 runoff season.
With planned release reductions at Gavins Point Dam, USACE is evaluating plans to begin evacuating water from the Kansas River Reservoir system. USACE is also reporting that, under current conditions, significant releases will probably not begin until well into September, 2011. Eight (8) Federal levees are being monitored for potential overtopping, as well as sand boils, seepage, or other issues causing weakening of the levee structure.
As of this report, all monitored levees have more than 2 feet of freeboard. There are also six (6) non-Federal levees expected to experience less than 2 feet of freeboard or less over the next five days. Most levees are agricultural.

Significant National Weather

Major Heat Wave Continues
Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and Advisories remain in effect across portions of the Mississippi Valley, Central and Southern Plains. For the latest information see: www.weather.gov/largemap.php
Midwest:
Unsettled weather is forecast today from the Upper Midwest southeastward through the Great Lakes and into the Northeastern U.S. Thunderstorms, some severe, will be ongoing or developing from eastern Minnesota and Iowa to the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. Downpours of 1 to 4 inches will accompany some of these thunderstorms, especially across Upper Michigan. With temperatures up to 15 degrees above average, highs will range from the 70s in northern Michigan to the 90s in the Ohio Valley and between 105 and 110 degrees in southern Kansas.
Northeast:
Severe thunderstorms moving east from the Great Lakes will begin to impact western New York and western Pennsylvania later this evening, with the potential to produce heavy rainfall in excess of 2 inches. A few thunderstorms are also possible across New England today, with the possibility for severe storms in southern New England. The heavy thunderstorm activity spreading through the Great Lakes today should reach the upper Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday morning and exit off the Atlantic coast by Thursday morning. Some cooler and drier air will settle in the wake of this system, bringing more seasonal temperatures to the Ohio Valley and Northeastern states.
West:
Widespread monsoon continues Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorms from the interior Northwest to the Mexico border. The heaviest thunderstorms are likely across Colorado, with inch or greater downpours expected.
South:
High pressure will dominate the region today, resulting in dry, hot weather. Highs temperatures will range from the 90s to just over 100 degrees across the Southeast, and from 100 to 112 degrees across the southern Plains. Factoring in the humidity, heat indices for most of region will range between 100 and 120 degrees.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic / Caribbean /Gulf of MexicoÂ*Â*
Tropical Storm Emily
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Emily is located about 245 miles southeast of San Juan, PR and moving to the west at 16 mph. The maximum sustained winds are 40 mph and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. TS Emily is expected to turn toward the west-northwest and move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea today and approach the Island of Hispaniola tonight and Wednesday. A gradual decrease in forward speed and gradual increase in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected in Puerto Rico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. A storm surge will raise water levels by 1 to 2 feet above nor mal tide level s in the tropical storm warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Eastern PacificÂ*

Hurricane EugeneÂ*
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Aug 2, Eugene was located about 445 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Eugene is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Eugene is a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. Some strengthening is likely today before a weakening trend commences on Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles, and Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
Area 1
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive, some development of this system is possible over the next couple of days. This system has a low chance (20%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific

No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday afternoon.

Western PacificÂ*Â*

At 5:00 p.m. EDT Aug 2, Super Typhoon 11W (Muifa) was located approximately 465 miles east south-southeast of Kadena AFB, Japan and continues to track north-northeastward at 9 mph with an eventual turn to the NW. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph, with higher gusts.

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

Monday, August 1, 2011:
National Preparedness Level: 2
Initial attack activity: LIGHT (179 new fires)
New Large Fires: 6
Large Fires Contained: 12
Uncontained Large Fires: 13
Type 1 IMT Committed: 0
Type 2 IMT Committed: 4
States affected: GA, NC, TX, FL, AR, OK, NM, ID, WY, NV, CA, MT & OR.
FMAG Approved â Oklahoma
On August 1, 2011 at 7:30 p.m. EDT, the Region VI Deputy Regional Administrator approved an FMAG for the Mustang Road Fire in Canadian County, OK.Â* At the time of the request, the fire had burned approximately 300 acres and was threatening 125 homes near Mustang, OK.Â* There have been 150 persons evacuated from the affected area.

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment No. 1 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4005-DR-TN
Effective August 1, 2011, Amendment #1 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-4005-DR for the State of Tennessee adds Public Assistance for Anderson County.



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